Emergency DepartmentPRED-URGNCT03051737
Development and Validation of a Regional Multi-scale System for the Prediction of the Patient Flow in the Emergencies and the Need for Hospitalization
An observational study of Emergency Department and Hospitalization, run by Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Paris at 1 site in France.
Trial summary
The main objective of this retrospective study is to validate a prediction system of emergencies department (ED) attendance on a wide range of time and the need for hospitalization, at various levels of perimeter (with all emergency departments or one ED in particular), with all patients or with one sub-group of… Read more about this study
- Who is it for?
- Any age
- Conditions the study is for
- Emergency Department, Hospitalization
- How many people
- 18,000,000 participants
- Where
- 1 siteFrance
- Study dates
- 1 Jun 2021to Dec 2023
- Phase
- Observational
- Are there results?
- None posted in the registry
Key requirements
Who can take part, as listed by the sponsor. Only the study team can confirm whether you are eligible, so take this list to your doctor.
- Ages Any age
- All sexes
- No healthy volunteers
- Child, Adult, Older adult
Study population: Adults or children who have been recorded as patients in emergency departments between 2010 and 2015 are all eligibles with unlimited number of care. 85 Health Facilities in Ile de France who have emergency departments will participate the study.
Who may be able to join
- All subjects have been recorded as patients in emergency departments between 2010 and 2015.
Who cannot join
- None
Trial locations and contacts
1 site in 1 country.
France1 site, 1 recruiting
- Recruiting
Emergency Department - Bry sur Marne Hospital
Bry-sur-Marne, Val-de-Marne, 94360
Mathias WARGON, MD, +33 1 49 83 10 86, m.wargon@ch-bry.org
About this study
Official title: Development and Validation of a Regional Multi-scale System in Ile-de-France for the Prediction of the Patient Flow in the Emergency Department and the Need for Hospitalization
The main objective of this retrospective study is to validate a prediction system of emergencies department (ED) attendance on a wide range of time and the need for hospitalization, at various levels of perimeter (with all emergency departments or one ED in particular), with all patients or with one sub-group of patients (age, gravity, care).
Read the detailed description
As secondary objectives, the study aims:
- to measure the influence of different factors as environmental or structural and to identify the modifiable factors, then to allow us to test by simulation, impact of various interventions (for example: opening of hospitals and reinforcement of ED teams) on arrival flows or regenerated tension inside ED teams.
- to study the relation between the flows (arrival patients, hospitalized patients) and the time of ED visit or the indicators of tension of ED team.
- Typology of ED in the region of Paris permitting afterward comparison the benchmarking type between similar structures.
This retrospective study will be performed on database: individual data in the region of Paris of summation of ED visits and data on the structures of health cares, as well as environmental data (principal given cares, weather, moves, circulations, pollution, strikes, vacations, etc.)
- Conditions
- Emergency Department, Hospitalization
- Keywords
- Multi-scale, Prediction, Patient Flow, Emergency Department, Hospitalization, Ile-de-France
- Medical subject headings
- Emergencies
What is being measured
The primary outcome is the main question the study is designed to answer.
Prediction of emergency department visits
Calculated base on regional database: individual data of summation of ED visits in the region of Paris and structural data of health cares
Measured: throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Secondary outcomes (7)
Prediction by age
By sub-group of child or senior
Measured: throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Prediction by lever of gravity
Measured: throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Prediction by type of care
By type : (medical, surgical or intensive) care
Measured: throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Prediction by need of hospitalization or no
Measured: throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Relation between flow of patients and indicator of tension of team
Measured: throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Relation between flow of patients and time of ED visit
Measured: throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Typology of ED of the region of Paris
Measured: throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Timeline
From the start of the study to its completion; the mark is today. Estimated dates are the sponsor’s plan.
- First posted14 Feb 2017
- Study start1 Jun 2021
- Primary completionDec 2023 (estimated)
- Study completionDec 2023 (estimated)
Resources
- Official record on ClinicalTrials.govThe registry entry this page is built from, with its full change history.
- Other trials for Emergency DepartmentStudies of the same condition, open and under way.
- More trials run by Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de ParisThe sponsor's other registered studies.
- What the trial phases meanHow a treatment moves from first tests in people to approval.
More details
For doctors and researchers: how the study is designed, who runs it, and its registry IDs.
Study design
- Study type
- Observational
- Observational model
- Other
- Time perspective
- Retrospective
- Enrolment
- 18,000,000 participants (estimated)
Sponsor and investigators
- Lead sponsor
- Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Paris
- Sponsor type
- University, hospital or other
- Responsible party
- Sponsor
- Investigators
- Mathias WARGON, MD, Principal investigator, Emergency Department - Bry sur Marne Hospital
IDs, dates and publications
- ClinicalTrials.gov ID
- NCT03051737
- Sponsor's protocol ID
- NI15018
- Acronym
- PRED-URG
- Status last verified
- Mar 2022
- First submitted
- 6 Feb 2017
- Last updated
- 22 Mar 2022
- Results posted
- No
- Data monitoring committee
- No
- FDA-regulated drug
- No
- FDA-regulated device
- No
- Individual data sharing
- No
Study at a glance
From the registry record, last updated by the sponsor on 22 Mar 2022. Recruitment status is as the sponsor reported it: confirm with the study team.
- Official title
- Development and Validation of a Regional Multi-scale System in Ile-de-France for the Prediction of the Patient Flow in the Emergency Department and the Need for Hospitalization
- ClinicalTrials.gov ID
- NCT03051737
- Acronym / sponsor ID
- PRED-URG / NI15018
- Conditions
- Emergency Department, Hospitalization
- Keywords
- Multi-scale, Prediction, Patient Flow, Emergency Department, Hospitalization, Ile-de-France
- Study type
- Observational
- Recruitment status
- Unknown status
- Enrolment
- 18,000,000 participants (estimated)
- Lead sponsor
- Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de ParisUniversity, hospital or other
- Study start
- 1 Jun 2021 (actual)
- Primary completion
- Dec 2023 (estimated)
- Study completion
- Dec 2023 (estimated)
- First posted
- 14 Feb 2017 (actual)
- Results
- Not posted in the source record
Clinical summary
The research question as the sponsor registered it. This describes what the study plans to test, not what it found.
The main objective of this retrospective study is to validate a prediction system of emergencies department (ED) attendance on a wide range of time and the need for hospitalization, at various levels of perimeter (with all emergency departments or one ED in particular), with all patients or with one sub-group of patients (age, gravity, care).
Detailed description
As secondary objectives, the study aims:
- to measure the influence of different factors as environmental or structural and to identify the modifiable factors, then to allow us to test by simulation, impact of various interventions (for example: opening of hospitals and reinforcement of ED teams) on arrival flows or regenerated tension inside ED teams.
- to study the relation between the flows (arrival patients, hospitalized patients) and the time of ED visit or the indicators of tension of ED team.
- Typology of ED in the region of Paris permitting afterward comparison the benchmarking type between similar structures.
This retrospective study will be performed on database: individual data in the region of Paris of summation of ED visits and data on the structures of health cares, as well as environmental data (principal given cares, weather, moves, circulations, pollution, strikes, vacations, etc.)
Study design
- Observational model
- Other
- Time perspective
- Retrospective
Who may qualify
- Sex
- All
- Healthy volunteers
- Not accepted
- Age groups
- Child, Adult, Older adult
- Study population
- Adults or children who have been recorded as patients in emergency departments between 2010 and 2015 are all eligibles with unlimited number of care. 85 Health Facilities in Ile de France who have emergency departments will participate the study.
Key inclusion criteria (1 listed)
- All subjects have been recorded as patients in emergency departments between 2010 and 2015.
Key exclusion criteria (1 listed)
- None
Eligibility is decided by the study team after screening; this overview does not establish that a patient qualifies. Full inclusion and exclusion criteria.
Primary outcome
Prediction of emergency department visits
Time frame: throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Calculated base on regional database: individual data of summation of ED visits in the region of Paris and structural data of health cares
7 secondary outcomes
Prediction by age
Time frame: throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Prediction by lever of gravity
Time frame: throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Prediction by type of care
Time frame: throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Prediction by need of hospitalization or no
Time frame: throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Relation between flow of patients and indicator of tension of team
Time frame: throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Relation between flow of patients and time of ED visit
Time frame: throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Typology of ED of the region of Paris
Time frame: throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Results and safety
Results are not available in the source record.
Research links
- Official record on ClinicalTrials.govLast updated by the sponsor 22 Mar 2022.
- Individual participant dataSharing planned: No
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Referral and contact
AzTrials does not enrol participants or take referrals. Contact the study team or a site listed below; they decide who can take part. This study is not recruiting at the moment.
Mathias WARGON, MD principal investigator
Emergency Department - Bry sur Marne Hospital
1 site in 1 country: see every site and its status.
Questions about this trial
What is this clinical trial studying?
An observational study of Emergency Department and Hospitalization, run by Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Paris at 1 site in France.
The full registered description is in the About this study section and the official record.
Who may be eligible to take part?
The sponsor lists 1 inclusion and 1 exclusion criteria. Eligibility is decided by the study team after screening, so read the full criteria and contact a listed site.
Is this clinical trial currently recruiting?
The record says: status not confirmed, as of the sponsor's last update on 22 Mar 2022. Status can change between updates, so confirm with the study contact before making plans.
Where is the study taking place?
The record lists 1 site in France. Whether a site is taking part right now should be confirmed with that site. See every site.
What are the possible benefits and risks?
They depend on the study and the treatment, and no study can promise a benefit. The study team explains the known risks during informed consent, before anyone joins; the record itself does not list them.
Are results available for this study?
Results are not available in the source record.
How can a doctor refer a patient or contact the research team?
Contact Mathias WARGON, MD (+33 1 49 83 10 86, m.wargon@ch-bry.org), or a site near the patient. AzTrials does not enrol participants or take referrals.
What does the primary outcome measure?
Prediction of emergency department visits (time frame: throughout the study, an average of 18 months). It is what the study was designed to measure, not a finding.
Where can I read the original study information?
Does a listing mean the treatment is approved or proven to work?
No. A listing means the study is registered. It does not show that the treatment is safe, works, or is approved by a regulator.
How often is this information updated?
AzTrials copies changed records from ClinicalTrials.gov every night and reloads the whole registry every week. The sponsor last updated this record on 22 Mar 2022.