Covid-19Covid19TmeSerNCT04460274
Forecast Number of Covid-19 Cases Worldwide
An observational study of Covid-19, run by Turkish Ministry of Health Izmir Teaching Hospital at 1 site in Turkey (Türkiye).
Trial summary
Coronavirus disease-19 (Covid-19) had an unprecedented effect on both nations and health systems. Time series modeling using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) models have been used to forecast variables extensively mainly in statistics and econometrics. Read more about this study
- Who is it for?
- Any age
- Conditions the study is for
- Covid-19
- What is being tested?
- Model Building and Model validation
- How many people
- 7,882,471 participants
- Where
- 1 siteTurkey (Türkiye)
- Study dates
- 31 Dec 2019to 20 Jun 2020
- Phase
- Observational
- Are there results?
- None posted in the registry
Key requirements
Who can take part, as listed by the sponsor. Only the study team can confirm whether you are eligible, so take this list to your doctor.
- Ages Any age
- All sexes
- No healthy volunteers
- Child, Adult, Older adult
Study population: Population consists all confirmed cases of Covid-19 reported from Situation Dashboard of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control website Coronavirus 19 Situation Report
Who may be able to join
- Confirmed case of Covid-19
Who cannot join
- Cases not reported
Trial locations and contacts
1 site in 1 country.
Turkey (Türkiye)1 site
Republic of Turkey, Health Sciences University, Izmir Bozyaka Education and Training Hospital
Izmir, 35360
About this study
Official title: Time Series Model For Forecasting the Number of Covid-19 Cases Worldwide - A Prospective Cohort Study
Coronavirus disease-19 (Covid-19) had an unprecedented effect on both nations and health systems. Time series modeling using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) models have been used to forecast variables extensively mainly in statistics and econometrics. The investigators aimed to predict the total number of cases for Covid-19 using ARIMA models of time-series analysis.
Read the detailed description
Coronavirus Disease 19 (Covid-19) is an infectious disease initially defined in December 2019 before becoming pandemic. Respiratory disease is the main form of disease causing acute respiratory distress as the main cause of death.
Increased number of cases worldwide had put an enormous load on public health resulting lockdowns, quarantines and curfews. Predicting number of cases is hard as the increment of cases between communities differ.
Time series had been used in different fields of science to predict, such as signal processing, mathematical finance, weather prediction. In medicine, time series analysis were used in number of admitted patients to hospitals. Aim of this study is to predict the total number of Covid-19 cases worldwide using time series anaylsis.
- Conditions
- Covid-19
- Being tested
- Model Building, Model validation
- Keywords
- Covid19, forecasting
- Medical subject headings
- COVID-19
What participants receive
What participants receive. In a randomised study each person is assigned to one group by chance.
Model BuildingOther
Model building
Model validationOther
Model validation
| Study group | Role | What they receive |
|---|---|---|
| Model Building | Number of Covid-19 cases from December 31, 2019 to June 1, 2020 were used to build ARIMA model using Hyndman-Khandakar algorithm. Receives: Other: Model Building | |
| Model Validation | Number of Covid-19 cases from June 2, 2020 to June 15, 2020 were used to forecast cases using the ARIMA model Receives: Other: Model validation |
What is being measured
The primary outcome is the main question the study is designed to answer.
Number of Confirmed cases of Covid-19
Measured: December 31, 2019 to June 15, 2020
Timeline
From the start of the study to its completion; the mark is today. Estimated dates are the sponsor’s plan.
- First posted7 Jul 2020
- Study start31 Dec 2019
- Primary completion15 Jun 2020
- Study completion20 Jun 2020
Resources
- Official record on ClinicalTrials.govThe registry entry this page is built from, with its full change history.
- Other trials for Covid-19Studies of the same condition, open and under way.
- What the trial phases meanHow a treatment moves from first tests in people to approval.
More details
For doctors and researchers: how the study is designed, who runs it, and its registry IDs.
Study design
- Study type
- Observational
- Observational model
- Cohort
- Time perspective
- Retrospective
- Enrolment
- 7,882,471 participants (actual)
Sponsor and investigators
- Lead sponsor
- Turkish Ministry of Health Izmir Teaching Hospital
- Sponsor type
- Other government
- Responsible party
- Principal investigator, Serhat Akay, Turkish Ministry of Health Izmir Teaching Hospital
IDs, dates and publications
- ClinicalTrials.gov ID
- NCT04460274
- Sponsor's protocol ID
- TurkishMOHITH-TimeSeries
- Acronym
- Covid19TmeSer
- Status last verified
- Jul 2020
- First submitted
- 3 Jul 2020
- Last updated
- 8 Jul 2020
- Results posted
- No
- Data monitoring committee
- No
- FDA-regulated drug
- No
- FDA-regulated device
- No
Study at a glance
From the registry record, last updated by the sponsor on 8 Jul 2020. Recruitment status is as the sponsor reported it: confirm with the study team.
- Official title
- Time Series Model For Forecasting the Number of Covid-19 Cases Worldwide - A Prospective Cohort Study
- ClinicalTrials.gov ID
- NCT04460274
- Acronym / sponsor ID
- Covid19TmeSer / TurkishMOHITH-TimeSeries
- Conditions
- Covid-19
- Keywords
- Covid19, forecasting
- Study type
- Observational
- Recruitment status
- Completed
- Enrolment
- 7,882,471 participants (actual)
- Lead sponsor
- Turkish Ministry of Health Izmir Teaching HospitalOther government
- Study start
- 31 Dec 2019 (actual)
- Primary completion
- 15 Jun 2020 (actual)
- Study completion
- 20 Jun 2020 (actual)
- First posted
- 7 Jul 2020 (actual)
- Results
- Not posted in the source record
Clinical summary
The research question as the sponsor registered it. This describes what the study plans to test, not what it found.
Coronavirus disease-19 (Covid-19) had an unprecedented effect on both nations and health systems. Time series modeling using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) models have been used to forecast variables extensively mainly in statistics and econometrics. The investigators aimed to predict the total number of cases for Covid-19 using ARIMA models of time-series analysis.
Detailed description
Coronavirus Disease 19 (Covid-19) is an infectious disease initially defined in December 2019 before becoming pandemic. Respiratory disease is the main form of disease causing acute respiratory distress as the main cause of death.
Increased number of cases worldwide had put an enormous load on public health resulting lockdowns, quarantines and curfews. Predicting number of cases is hard as the increment of cases between communities differ.
Time series had been used in different fields of science to predict, such as signal processing, mathematical finance, weather prediction. In medicine, time series analysis were used in number of admitted patients to hospitals. Aim of this study is to predict the total number of Covid-19 cases worldwide using time series anaylsis.
Study design
- Observational model
- Cohort
- Time perspective
- Retrospective
- Number of arms
- 2
| Arm | Type | Receives |
|---|---|---|
| Model Building | – | Other: Model BuildingNumber of Covid-19 cases from December 31, 2019 to June 1, 2020 were used to build ARIMA model using Hyndman-Khandakar algorithm. |
| Model Validation | – | Other: Model validationNumber of Covid-19 cases from June 2, 2020 to June 15, 2020 were used to forecast cases using the ARIMA model |
Who may qualify
- Sex
- All
- Healthy volunteers
- Not accepted
- Age groups
- Child, Adult, Older adult
- Study population
- Population consists all confirmed cases of Covid-19 reported from Situation Dashboard of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control website Coronavirus 19 Situation Report
Key inclusion criteria (1 listed)
- Confirmed case of Covid-19
Key exclusion criteria (1 listed)
- Cases not reported
Eligibility is decided by the study team after screening; this overview does not establish that a patient qualifies. Full inclusion and exclusion criteria.
Interventions
| Intervention | Type | Arms |
|---|---|---|
| Model BuildingModel building | Other | Model Building |
| Model validationModel validation | Other | Model Validation |
Primary outcome
Number of Confirmed cases of Covid-19
Time frame: December 31, 2019 to June 15, 2020
Results and safety
The study is completed, but results are not available in the source record. That does not mean the treatment did or did not work.
Research links
- Official record on ClinicalTrials.govLast updated by the sponsor 8 Jul 2020.
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Referral and contact
AzTrials does not enrol participants or take referrals. Contact the study team or a site listed below; they decide who can take part. This study is not recruiting at the moment.
The record lists no contact. Use the official record to reach the sponsor.
1 site in 1 country: see every site and its status.
Questions about this trial
What is this clinical trial studying?
An observational study of Covid-19, run by Turkish Ministry of Health Izmir Teaching Hospital at 1 site in Turkey (Türkiye).
The full registered description is in the About this study section and the official record.
Who may be eligible to take part?
The sponsor lists 1 inclusion and 1 exclusion criteria. Eligibility is decided by the study team after screening, so read the full criteria and contact a listed site.
Is this clinical trial currently recruiting?
The record says: finished, as of the sponsor's last update on 8 Jul 2020. Status can change between updates, so confirm with the study contact before making plans.
Where is the study taking place?
The record lists 1 site in Turkey (Türkiye). Whether a site is taking part right now should be confirmed with that site. See every site.
What are the possible benefits and risks?
They depend on the study and the treatment, and no study can promise a benefit. The study team explains the known risks during informed consent, before anyone joins; the record itself does not list them.
Are results available for this study?
The study is completed, but results are not available in the source record. That does not mean the treatment did or did not work.
How can a doctor refer a patient or contact the research team?
The record lists no contact. The official record names the sponsor, who can be asked directly. AzTrials does not enrol participants or take referrals.
What does the primary outcome measure?
Number of Confirmed cases of Covid-19 (time frame: December 31, 2019 to June 15, 2020). It is what the study was designed to measure, not a finding.
Where can I read the original study information?
Does a listing mean the treatment is approved or proven to work?
No. A listing means the study is registered. It does not show that the treatment is safe, works, or is approved by a regulator.
How often is this information updated?
AzTrials copies changed records from ClinicalTrials.gov every night and reloads the whole registry every week. The sponsor last updated this record on 8 Jul 2020.