Acute Ischemic StrokeNCT04979624
Construction and Validation of an In-hospital Mortality Risk Prediction Model for Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients
An observational study of Acute Ischemic Stroke, run by Shenzhen Second People's Hospital.
Trial summary
Firstly, the application effect of the existing predictive models, SOAR and GWTG-Stroke, was verified in Guangdong acute ischemic Stroke population, and the clinical application effect of the existing predictive models was verified. Read more about this study
- Who is it for?
- Ages 18 years and older
- Conditions the study is for
- Acute Ischemic Stroke
- How many people
- 234 participants
- Where
- No sites listed yet
- Study dates
- 1 Jul 2022to 31 Dec 2023
- Phase
- Observational
- Are there results?
- None posted in the registry
Key requirements
Who can take part, as listed by the sponsor. Only the study team can confirm whether you are eligible, so take this list to your doctor.
- Ages 18 years and older
- All sexes
- No healthy volunteers
- Adult, Older adult
Study population: Clinical data of acute ischemic stroke patients hospitalized in Shenzhen Second People's Hospital and Shenzhen Longhua District People's Hospital
Who may be able to join
- ≥18 years old;
- It meets the diagnostic criteria of China Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Treatment of Acute Ischemic Stroke 2018, and bleeding is confirmed by head MRI or excluded by CT after admission;
- Admission within 72 hours of onset. -
Who cannot join
- Non-vascular causes and transient ischemic attack;
- with severe hepatic and renal dysfunction;
- Central nervous system infection, recent history of severe trauma, and malignant tumors affecting survival time;
- Incomplete main clinical data. -
Trial locations and contacts
No sites are listed yet.
About this study
Firstly, the application effect of the existing predictive models, SOAR and GWTG-Stroke, was verified in Guangdong acute ischemic Stroke population, and the clinical application effect of the existing predictive models was verified.
Secondly, the predictive value of clinical indicators was analyzed, SOAR and GWTG-Stroke scores were optimized, and an improved prediction Model (New Model) was constructed.
The third is to apply the New Model to clinical practice, collect clinical data and evaluate the prediction effect of the Model, and evaluate the prediction efficiency of the improved prediction Model.
Read the detailed description
This research is mainly divided into two parts. The first part is to verify and optimize the existing prediction model. Through continuous collection of clinical data of acute ischemic Stroke patients hospitalized in Shenzhen Second People's Hospital from January 2017 to December 2021, including baseline indicators and end point events, based on the existing prediction model (SOAR, GWTG-Stroke), The predictive probability was calculated and compared with the actual mortality during hospitalization. The ROC curve, calibration curve and decision curve were used to evaluate the model's differentiation, calibration and clinical application value.
Using retrospective data, multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the predictive value of baseline clinical indicators, screen risk factors, and optimize the prediction model of SOAR and GWTG-Stroke.
Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBOOST) was used to select variables, and logistic regression model was used based on Akaike Information Criterion.
AIC) was used to construct an improved mortality risk prediction Model (New Model). Decision curves were used to compare the models. Combined with the clinical significance of the indicators, the construction of the prediction Model was improved.
The model was validated internally by resampling with computer simulation. The second part is to evaluate the clinical application effect of the improved prediction Model. The clinical data of acute ischemic stroke patients hospitalized in Shenzhen Second People's Hospital and Shenzhen Longhua District People's Hospital from January 2022 to December 2023 are collected continuously. The New Model is applied in the clinic, and the New Model is validated in the external time and space.
Evaluate prediction effectiveness and extrapolation.
- Conditions
- Acute Ischemic Stroke
- Keywords
- In-hospital mortality
- Medical subject headings
- Ischemic Stroke
What is being measured
The primary outcome is the main question the study is designed to answer.
In-hospital mortality
Deaths during hospitalization in patients with acute ischemic stroke
Measured: 7-day in-hospital mortality rates
Timeline
From the start of the study to its completion; the mark is today. Estimated dates are the sponsor’s plan.
- First posted28 Jul 2021
- Study start1 Jul 2022 (estimated)
- Primary completion30 Jun 2023 (estimated)
- Study completion31 Dec 2023 (estimated)
Resources
- Official record on ClinicalTrials.govThe registry entry this page is built from, with its full change history.
- Other trials for Acute Ischemic StrokeStudies of the same condition, open and under way.
- What the trial phases meanHow a treatment moves from first tests in people to approval.
More details
For doctors and researchers: how the study is designed, who runs it, and its registry IDs.
Study design
- Study type
- Observational
- Observational model
- Case only
- Time perspective
- Cross-sectional
- Enrolment
- 234 participants (estimated)
Sponsor and investigators
- Lead sponsor
- Shenzhen Second People's Hospital
- Sponsor type
- University, hospital or other
- Responsible party
- Sponsor
IDs, dates and publications
- ClinicalTrials.gov ID
- NCT04979624
- Sponsor's protocol ID
- 20213357006
- Status last verified
- Apr 2022
- First submitted
- 27 Jul 2021
- Last updated
- 5 Apr 2022
- Results posted
- No
- Data monitoring committee
- Yes
- FDA-regulated drug
- No
- FDA-regulated device
- No
Study at a glance
From the registry record, last updated by the sponsor on 5 Apr 2022. Recruitment status is as the sponsor reported it: confirm with the study team.
- Official title
- Construction and Validation of an In-hospital Mortality Risk Prediction Model for Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients
- ClinicalTrials.gov ID
- NCT04979624
- Acronym / sponsor ID
- 20213357006
- Conditions
- Acute Ischemic Stroke
- Keywords
- In-hospital mortality
- Study type
- Observational
- Recruitment status
- Unknown status
- Enrolment
- 234 participants (estimated)
- Lead sponsor
- Shenzhen Second People's HospitalUniversity, hospital or other
- Study start
- 1 Jul 2022 (estimated)
- Primary completion
- 30 Jun 2023 (estimated)
- Study completion
- 31 Dec 2023 (estimated)
- First posted
- 28 Jul 2021 (actual)
- Results
- Not posted in the source record
Clinical summary
The research question as the sponsor registered it. This describes what the study plans to test, not what it found.
Firstly, the application effect of the existing predictive models, SOAR and GWTG-Stroke, was verified in Guangdong acute ischemic Stroke population, and the clinical application effect of the existing predictive models was verified.
Secondly, the predictive value of clinical indicators was analyzed, SOAR and GWTG-Stroke scores were optimized, and an improved prediction Model (New Model) was constructed.
The third is to apply the New Model to clinical practice, collect clinical data and evaluate the prediction effect of the Model, and evaluate the prediction efficiency of the improved prediction Model.
Detailed description
This research is mainly divided into two parts. The first part is to verify and optimize the existing prediction model. Through continuous collection of clinical data of acute ischemic Stroke patients hospitalized in Shenzhen Second People's Hospital from January 2017 to December 2021, including baseline indicators and end point events, based on the existing prediction model (SOAR, GWTG-Stroke), The predictive probability was calculated and compared with the actual mortality during hospitalization. The ROC curve, calibration curve and decision curve were used to evaluate the model's differentiation, calibration and clinical application value.
Using retrospective data, multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the predictive value of baseline clinical indicators, screen risk factors, and optimize the prediction model of SOAR and GWTG-Stroke.
Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBOOST) was used to select variables, and logistic regression model was used based on Akaike Information Criterion.
AIC) was used to construct an improved mortality risk prediction Model (New Model). Decision curves were used to compare the models. Combined with the clinical significance of the indicators, the construction of the prediction Model was improved.
The model was validated internally by resampling with computer simulation. The second part is to evaluate the clinical application effect of the improved prediction Model. The clinical data of acute ischemic stroke patients hospitalized in Shenzhen Second People's Hospital and Shenzhen Longhua District People's Hospital from January 2022 to December 2023 are collected continuously. The New Model is applied in the clinic, and the New Model is validated in the external time and space.
Evaluate prediction effectiveness and extrapolation.
Study design
- Observational model
- Case only
- Time perspective
- Cross-sectional
Who may qualify
- Ages
- 18 years and older
- Sex
- All
- Healthy volunteers
- Not accepted
- Age groups
- Adult, Older adult
- Study population
- Clinical data of acute ischemic stroke patients hospitalized in Shenzhen Second People's Hospital and Shenzhen Longhua District People's Hospital
Key inclusion criteria (3 listed)
- ≥18 years old;
- It meets the diagnostic criteria of China Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Treatment of Acute Ischemic Stroke 2018, and bleeding is confirmed by head MRI or excluded by CT after admission;
- Admission within 72 hours of onset. -
Key exclusion criteria (4 listed)
- Non-vascular causes and transient ischemic attack;
- with severe hepatic and renal dysfunction;
- Central nervous system infection, recent history of severe trauma, and malignant tumors affecting survival time;
- Incomplete main clinical data. -
Eligibility is decided by the study team after screening; this overview does not establish that a patient qualifies. Full inclusion and exclusion criteria.
Primary outcome
In-hospital mortality
Time frame: 7-day in-hospital mortality rates
Deaths during hospitalization in patients with acute ischemic stroke
Results and safety
Results are not available in the source record.
Research links
- Official record on ClinicalTrials.govLast updated by the sponsor 5 Apr 2022.
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Referral and contact
AzTrials does not enrol participants or take referrals. Contact the study team or a site listed below; they decide who can take part. This study is not recruiting at the moment.
Questions about this trial
What is this clinical trial studying?
An observational study of Acute Ischemic Stroke, run by Shenzhen Second People's Hospital.
The full registered description is in the About this study section and the official record.
Who may be eligible to take part?
The sponsor lists 3 inclusion and 4 exclusion criteria. Eligibility is decided by the study team after screening, so read the full criteria and contact a listed site.
Is this clinical trial currently recruiting?
The record says: status not confirmed, as of the sponsor's last update on 5 Apr 2022. Status can change between updates, so confirm with the study contact before making plans.
What are the possible benefits and risks?
They depend on the study and the treatment, and no study can promise a benefit. The study team explains the known risks during informed consent, before anyone joins; the record itself does not list them.
Are results available for this study?
Results are not available in the source record.
How can a doctor refer a patient or contact the research team?
Contact Gao Yan, Ph.D (13660367430, gaoyanluoyang163@.com), or a site near the patient. AzTrials does not enrol participants or take referrals.
What does the primary outcome measure?
In-hospital mortality (time frame: 7-day in-hospital mortality rates). It is what the study was designed to measure, not a finding.
Where can I read the original study information?
Does a listing mean the treatment is approved or proven to work?
No. A listing means the study is registered. It does not show that the treatment is safe, works, or is approved by a regulator.
How often is this information updated?
AzTrials copies changed records from ClinicalTrials.gov every night and reloads the whole registry every week. The sponsor last updated this record on 5 Apr 2022.