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Pancreatic AdenocarcinomaNCT05973331

Prospective Validation of an EHR-based Pancreatic Cancer Risk Model

An observational study of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma and Predictive Cancer Model, run by Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center at 1 site in United States.

Active, not recruiting

Under way, not looking for participants. Everyone needed has enrolled. The study is still running.

Official record
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Trial summary

The goal of this prospective observational cohort study is to validate a previously developed pancreatic cancer risk prediction algorith (the PRISM model) using electronic health records from the general population. Read more about this study

Who is it for?
Ages 40 to 100 yearsHealthy volunteers can take part
What is being tested?
Pancreatic Cancer Risk Model (PRISM)
How many people
6,134,060 participants
Where
1 siteUnited States
Study dates
21 Apr 2023to Apr 2028
Phase
Observational
Are there results?
Not yet: the study is under way

Key requirements

Who can take part, as listed by the sponsor. Only the study team can confirm whether you are eligible, so take this list to your doctor.

  • Ages 40 to 100 years
  • All sexes
  • Healthy volunteers accepted
  • Adult, Older adult

Study population: The cohort will be selected from 44 eligible HCOs comprised of community hospitals, outpatient clinics and academic medical centers from across the US.

Who may be able to join

  • Male and females age >= 40 years from 44 US HCOs from the TriNetX platform
  • at least 2 clinical encounters to the HCO, within the last year, before the study start date

Who cannot join

  • Personal history of PDAC or current PDAC
  • Age below 40
  • Notes on sampling method: no sampling was performed. All eligible individuals are included in this study.

Trial locations and contacts

1 site in 1 country.

United States1 site
  • Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center

    Boston, Massachusetts, 02115

Other trials in United States

About this study

Official title: Prospective Validation of an EHR-based Model to Predict Pancreatic Cancer Risk Using Multicenter US Data

The goal of this prospective observational cohort study is to validate a previously developed pancreatic cancer risk prediction algorith (the PRISM model) using electronic health records from the general population. The main questions it aims to answer are:

  • Will a pancreatic cancer risk model, developed on routine EHR data, reliably and accurately predict pancreatic cancer in real-time?
  • What is the average time from model deployment and risk prediction, to the date of pancreatic cancer development and what is the stage of pancreatic cancer at diagnosis? The risk model will be deployed on data from individuals eligible for the study. Each individual will be assigned a risk score and tracked over time to assess the model's discriminatory performance and calibration.
Read the detailed description

To prospectively validate, implement in real-time, and assess performance of an EHR- based PDAC risk-prediction model. To test the hypothesis that our model will reliably predict PDAC in a real-time clinical setting, we will conduct a multi-center prospective cohort study, deploying the PDAC risk model within the TriNetX federated network database, and will take the following steps:

  1. generate a risk prediction score for each individual under the care of 44 health care organizations (HCOs) in the USA ii) follow all individuals for up to 3 years to assess the primary end-point of PDAC development.

The following metrics will be used to test the discriminative performance and calibration of the EHR-based PDAC risk model in predicting incident PDAC, at the end of the 3-year period:

  1. AUROC, sensitivity, specificity, PPV/NPV for assessing discrimination
  2. Calibration: for assessing the accuracy of estimates, based on the estimated to observed number of events
Being tested
Pancreatic Cancer Risk Model (PRISM)

What participants receive

What participants receive. In a randomised study each person is assigned to one group by chance.

  • Pancreatic Cancer Risk Model (PRISM)Other

    A neural network model (PrismNN) and a logistic regression model (PrismLR) that use routinely collected EHR data to stratify individuals from the general population into PDAC risk groups

Study groups in NCT05973331
Study groupRoleWhat they receive
prospective general opulation cohortMales and females age >= 40 years, without a personal history of PDAC or current PDAC, with at least 2 clinical encounters to the HCO within the year prior to the study start date.
Receives: Other: Pancreatic Cancer Risk Model (PRISM)

What is being measured

The primary outcome is the main question the study is designed to answer.

  1. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of PRISM for all groups stratified

    To assess the discriminatory performance of PRISM for prospective identification of high-risk individuals for PDAC development. ROCs and AUROC numbers will be calculated for the whole population and groups stratified by age, sex, race, and geographical location.

    Measured: 6 months from index date

  2. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of PRISM for all groups stratified

    To assess the discriminatory performance of PRISM for prospective identification of high-risk individuals for PDAC development. ROCs and AUROC numbers will be calculated for the whole population and groups stratified by age, sex, race, and geographical location.

    Measured: at 1 year

  3. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of PRISM for all groups stratified

    To assess the discriminatory performance of PRISM for prospective identification of high-risk individuals for PDAC development. ROCs and AUROC numbers will be calculated for the whole population and groups stratified by age, sex, race, and geographical location.

    Measured: at 2 years

  4. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of PRISM for all groups stratified

    To assess the discriminatory performance of PRISM for prospective identification of high-risk individuals for PDAC development. ROCs and AUROC numbers will be calculated for the whole population and groups stratified by age, sex, race, and geographical location.

    Measured: at 3 years

  5. Calibration of PRISM for all groups stratified

    To access how well the risk prediction by PRISM aligns with observed risk without recalibration. Calibration plots will be created for the whole population and groups stratified by age, sex, race, and geographical location.

    Measured: 6 months from index date

  6. Calibration of PRISM for all groups stratified

    To access how well the risk prediction by PRISM aligns with observed risk without recalibration. Calibration plots will be created for the whole population and groups stratified by age, sex, race, and geographical location.

    Measured: at 1 year

  7. Calibration of PRISM for all groups stratified

    To access how well the risk prediction by PRISM aligns with observed risk without recalibration. Calibration plots will be created for the whole population and groups stratified by age, sex, race, and geographical location.

    Measured: at 2 years

  8. Calibration of PRISM for all groups stratified

    To access how well the risk prediction by PRISM aligns with observed risk without recalibration. Calibration plots will be created for the whole population and groups stratified by age, sex, race, and geographical location.

    Measured: at 3 years

  9. PRISM performance metrics of high-risk group for direct screening

    To evaluate sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and SIR for patients identified as high-risk by PRISM. Numbers will be calculated for the whole population and groups stratified by age, sex, race, and geographical location. Risk threshold determined based on Standardized Incidence Ratio of 5 or greater. The absolute one-year risk thresholds are 0.1834% for PrismNN and 0.2048% risk for PrismLR. SIR 5 or greater was chosen because it is comparable to the current screening inclusion threshold for individuals with an inherited predisposition.

    Measured: 6 months from index date

  10. PRISM performance metrics of high-risk group for direct screening

    To evaluate sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and SIR for patients identified as high-risk by PRISM. Numbers will be calculated for the whole population and groups stratified by age, sex, race, and geographical location. Risk threshold determined based on Standardized Incidence Ratio of 5 or greater. The absolute one-year risk thresholds are 0.1834% for PrismNN and 0.2048% risk for PrismLR. SIR 5 or greater was chosen because it is comparable to the current screening inclusion threshold for individuals with an inherited predisposition.

    Measured: at 1 year

  11. PRISM performance metrics of high-risk group for direct screening

    To evaluate sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and SIR for patients identified as high-risk by PRISM. Numbers will be calculated for the whole population and groups stratified by age, sex, race, and geographical location. Risk threshold determined based on Standardized Incidence Ratio of 5 or greater. The absolute one-year risk thresholds are 0.1834% for PrismNN and 0.2048% risk for PrismLR. SIR 5 or greater was chosen because it is comparable to the current screening inclusion threshold for individuals with an inherited predisposition.

    Measured: at 2 years

  12. PRISM performance metrics of high-risk group for direct screening

    To evaluate sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and SIR for patients identified as high-risk by PRISM. Numbers will be calculated for the whole population and groups stratified by age, sex, race, and geographical location. Risk threshold determined based on Standardized Incidence Ratio of 5 or greater. The absolute one-year risk thresholds are 0.1834% for PrismNN and 0.2048% risk for PrismLR. SIR 5 or greater was chosen because it is comparable to the current screening inclusion threshold for individuals with an inherited predisposition.

    Measured: at 3 years

  13. PRISM performance metrics of medium-risk group for biomarker testing

    To evaluate sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and SIR for patients identified as medium-risk by PRISM. Numbers will be calculated for the whole population and groups stratified by age, sex, race, and geographical location. Risk threshold determined by specificity 85%, with sensitivity around 46%. The absolute one-year risk thresholds are 0.0574% for PrismNN and 0.0564% for PrismLR. Prism operates as a tiered system for identifying individuals in need of screening with this lower risk threshold.

    Measured: 6 months from index date

  14. PRISM performance metrics of medium-risk group for biomarker testing

    To evaluate sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and SIR for patients identified as medium-risk by PRISM. Numbers will be calculated for the whole population and groups stratified by age, sex, race, and geographical location. Risk threshold determined by specificity 85%, with sensitivity around 46%. The absolute one-year risk thresholds are 0.0574% for PrismNN and 0.0564% for PrismLR. Prism operates as a tiered system for identifying individuals in need of screening with this lower risk threshold.

    Measured: at 1 year

  15. PRISM performance metrics of medium-risk group for biomarker testing

    To evaluate sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and SIR for patients identified as medium-risk by PRISM. Numbers will be calculated for the whole population and groups stratified by age, sex, race, and geographical location. Risk threshold determined by specificity 85%, with sensitivity around 46%. The absolute one-year risk thresholds are 0.0574% for PrismNN and 0.0564% for PrismLR. Prism operates as a tiered system for identifying individuals in need of screening with this lower risk threshold.

    Measured: at 2 years

  16. PRISM performance metrics of medium-risk group for biomarker testing

    To evaluate sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and SIR for patients identified as medium-risk by PRISM. Numbers will be calculated for the whole population and groups stratified by age, sex, race, and geographical location. Risk threshold determined by specificity 85%, with sensitivity around 46%. The absolute one-year risk thresholds are 0.0574% for PrismNN and 0.0564% for PrismLR. Prism operates as a tiered system for identifying individuals in need of screening with this lower risk threshold.

    Measured: at 3 years

Secondary outcomes (9)
  1. Timing of incident PDAC occurrence

    To evaluate how long in advance before PDAC occurrence should be expected for PRISM models to make high-risk predictions. Distribution plots of the date of PDAC incidence for high/medium-risk groups (defined in Outcome 3 and Outcome 4) will be created.

    Measured: 6 months from index date

  2. Timing of incident PDAC occurrence

    To evaluate how long in advance before PDAC occurrence should be expected for PRISM models to make high-risk predictions. Distribution plots of the date of PDAC incidence for high/medium-risk groups (defined in Outcome 3 and Outcome 4) will be created.

    Measured: at 1 year

  3. Timing of incident PDAC occurrence

    To evaluate how long in advance before PDAC occurrence should be expected for PRISM models to make high-risk predictions. Distribution plots of the date of PDAC incidence for high/medium-risk groups (defined in Outcome 3 and Outcome 4) will be created.

    Measured: at 2 years

  4. Timing of incident PDAC occurrence

    To evaluate how long in advance before PDAC occurrence should be expected for PRISM models to make high-risk predictions. Distribution plots of the date of PDAC incidence for high/medium-risk groups (defined in Outcome 3 and Outcome 4) will be created.

    Measured: at 3 years

  5. Tumor stage at PDAC diagnosis

    stage at diagnosis per tumor registry/pathology report

    Measured: 6 months from index date

  6. Tumor stage at PDAC diagnosis

    stage at diagnosis per tumor registry/pathology report

    Measured: at 1 year

  7. Tumor stage at PDAC diagnosis

    stage at diagnosis per tumor registry/pathology report

    Measured: at 2 years

  8. Tumor stage at PDAC diagnosis

    stage at diagnosis per tumor registry/pathology report

    Measured: at 3 years

  9. Long-term timing of incident PDAC occurrence

    To characterize the timing of incident PDAC diagnosis among patients prospectively identified as elevated risk by PRISM during extended follow-up. Extended follow-up will evaluate longer-term PDAC occurrence following the observation that PRISM risk elevation may precede PDAC diagnosis by several years.

    Measured: Up to 5 years from index date

Timeline

From the start of the study to its completion; the mark is today. Estimated dates are the sponsor’s plan.

  1. First posted2 Aug 2023
  2. Study start21 Apr 2023
  3. Primary completion8 Jun 2026
  4. Study completionApr 2028 (estimated)

Resources

More details

For doctors and researchers: how the study is designed, who runs it, and its registry IDs.

Study design
Study type
Observational
Observational model
Cohort
Time perspective
Prospective
Enrolment
6,134,060 participants (actual)
IDs, dates and publications
ClinicalTrials.gov ID
NCT05973331
Sponsor's protocol ID
2023Trial
Status last verified
Oct 2026
First submitted
17 Jul 2023
Last updated
8 Oct 2026
Results posted
No
Data monitoring committee
No
FDA-regulated drug
No
FDA-regulated device
No
Individual data sharing
No

Questions about this trial

What is this clinical trial studying?

An observational study of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma and Predictive Cancer Model, run by Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center at 1 site in United States.

The full registered description is in the About this study section and the official record.

Who may be eligible to take part?

The sponsor lists 2 inclusion and 3 exclusion criteria. Eligibility is decided by the study team after screening, so read the full criteria and contact a listed site.

Is this clinical trial currently recruiting?

The record says: under way, not looking for participants, as of the sponsor's last update on 8 Oct 2026. Status can change between updates, so confirm with the study contact before making plans.

Where is the study taking place?

The record lists 1 site in United States. Whether a site is taking part right now should be confirmed with that site. See every site.

What are the possible benefits and risks?

They depend on the study and the treatment, and no study can promise a benefit. The study team explains the known risks during informed consent, before anyone joins; the record itself does not list them.

Are results available for this study?

This study is still under way. Results are not available in the source record yet.

How can a doctor refer a patient or contact the research team?

The record lists no contact. The official record names the sponsor, who can be asked directly. AzTrials does not enrol participants or take referrals.

What does the primary outcome measure?

Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of PRISM for all groups stratified (time frame: 6 months from index date). The study lists 16 primary outcomes in all. It is what the study was designed to measure, not a finding.

Where can I read the original study information?
Does a listing mean the treatment is approved or proven to work?

No. A listing means the study is registered. It does not show that the treatment is safe, works, or is approved by a regulator.

How often is this information updated?

AzTrials copies changed records from ClinicalTrials.gov every night and reloads the whole registry every week. The sponsor last updated this record on 8 Oct 2026.

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