CancerPanSCanNCT07008560
Spatiotemporal Associations Between the COVID-19 Pandemic and Cancer Diagnoses in Bavaria
An observational study of Cancer, run by Bavarian Cancer Registry at 1 site in Germany.
Trial summary
The COVID-19 pandemic has placed a significant strain on healthcare systems worldwide and has also impacted the diagnosis and treatment of cancer. In Germany, there was a notable decline in cancer diagnoses during the pandemic, partly due to delays in early detection and limited access to medical treatments. Read more about this study
- Who is it for?
- Ages 18 years and older
- Conditions the study is for
- Cancer
- How many people
- 438,000 participants
- Where
- 1 siteGermany
- Study dates
- 3 Sep 2025to 28 Feb 2026
- Phase
- Observational
- Are there results?
- Not yet: the study is under way
Key requirements
Who can take part, as listed by the sponsor. Only the study team can confirm whether you are eligible, so take this list to your doctor.
- Ages 18 years and older
- All sexes
- No healthy volunteers
- Adult, Older adult
Study population: The study includes all individuals aged 18 years and older with an incident diagnosis of cancer, including carcinoma in situ, recorded in the Bavarian Cancer Registry between 2018 and 2023.
Who may be able to join
- All incident cancer cases among individuals aged 18 years and older, including carcinoma in situ, diagnosed between 2018 and 2023 within Bavaria and recorded in the Bavarian Cancer Registry.
Who cannot join
- Death Certificate Only (DCO) cases. as they lack essential clinical information and the recorded date of diagnosis is in most cases the date of death, leading to temporal distortions in incidence estimates.
Trial locations and contacts
1 site in 1 country.
Germany1 site
Bavarian Cancer Registry, Bavarian Health and Food Safety Authority
Munich, Bavaria, 80538
About this study
Official title: Evaluation of Spatiotemporal Associations Between the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Incidence of Cancer Diagnoses in Bavaria, Germany: A Registry-based Study (PanSCan)
The COVID-19 pandemic has placed a significant strain on healthcare systems worldwide and has also impacted the diagnosis and treatment of cancer. In Germany, there was a notable decline in cancer diagnoses during the pandemic, partly due to delays in early detection and limited access to medical treatments.
This study examines how the number of cancer cases in Bavaria changed before and during the pandemic, taking various factors into account, such as the socioeconomic status of different regions, the age of affected individuals, and the severity of the pandemic in each region.
We aim to determine whether certain regions or specific types of tumors experienced greater declines in diagnoses, particularly for cancers with regular screening programs. The study seeks to provide a better understanding of how different social and geographical conditions influenced cancer diagnoses during the pandemic. These insights could help improve future preparedness for health crises like the pandemic and ensure that cancer treatment continues to function effectively even in times of crisis.
Read the detailed description
The COVID-19 pandemic has exerted significant pressure on healthcare systems worldwide, particularly impacting the diagnosis and treatment of non-communicable diseases such as cancer. In Germany, substantial declines in cancer diagnoses have been observed, primarily due to delays in early detection and limited access to medical services during the pandemic. This study aims to investigate the regional and temporal variations in cancer incidence in Bavaria before and during the pandemic, taking into account socio-economic, demographic factors, and the severity of the pandemic.
This registry-based study utilizes data from the Bavarian Cancer Registry spanning from 2018 to 2023. The analysis adopts a spatiotemporal approach to examine changes in cancer incidence over time at the district level in Bavaria. A Bayesian spatiotemporal Poisson model with a Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) structure will be employed to account for both spatial and temporal variations, as well as spatial correlations between neighboring districts. The analysis will incorporate demographic characteristics, socio-economic status, tumor-specific data, and regional variations in the severity of the pandemic.
It is hypothesized that the pandemic has led to regional disparities in cancer incidence, with socio-economically disadvantaged areas potentially being more severely affected. Tumors associated with established screening programs, such as breast, colon, and cervical cancer, may have experienced a greater reduction in diagnoses compared to other cancer types.
The findings of this study will provide valuable insights into how geographical and socio-economic factors influenced cancer incidence during the pandemic and how these inequalities were exacerbated. The results could inform future health policies aimed at ensuring the continued accessibility of cancer detection and treatment, even during public health crises.
- Conditions
- Cancer
- Keywords
- Cancer registration, Registry data, Population-based analysis, Incidence, COVID-19, Pandemics, Cancer
- Medical subject headings
- Neoplasms, COVID-19
What participants receive
What participants receive. In a randomised study each person is assigned to one group by chance.
| Study group | Role | What they receive |
|---|---|---|
| Bavarian Cancer Registry Cohort (2018-2023) | The study cohort consists of all incident cancer cases diagnosed in individuals aged 18 years and older in Bavaria, Germany, between January 1, 2018, and December 31, 2023. Eligible cases were identified through the Bavarian Cancer Registry and include carcinoma in situ. |
What is being measured
The primary outcome is the main question the study is designed to answer.
Newly diagnosed cancer cases
Number of incident cancer cases per district and month in Bavaria, Germany
Measured: 2018 to 2023
Timeline
From the start of the study to its completion; the mark is today. Estimated dates are the sponsor’s plan.
- First posted6 Jun 2025
- Study start3 Sep 2025
- Primary completion31 Dec 2025 (estimated)
- Study completion28 Feb 2026 (estimated)
Resources
- Official record on ClinicalTrials.govThe registry entry this page is built from, with its full change history.
- Other trials for CancerStudies of the same condition, open and under way.
- What the trial phases meanHow a treatment moves from first tests in people to approval.
More details
For doctors and researchers: how the study is designed, who runs it, and its registry IDs.
Study design
- Study type
- Observational
- Observational model
- Ecologic or community
- Time perspective
- Retrospective
- Enrolment
- 438,000 participants (estimated)
Sponsor and investigators
- Lead sponsor
- Bavarian Cancer Registry
- Sponsor type
- Other government
- Collaborators
- Ludwig-Maximilians - University of Munich
- Responsible party
- Sponsor
- Investigators
- Jacqueline Müller-Nordhorn, Prof. Dr., Principal investigator, Bavarian Cancer Registry, Bavarian Health and Food Safety Authority
IDs, dates and publications
- ClinicalTrials.gov ID
- NCT07008560
- Sponsor's protocol ID
- 2025-1014
- Acronym
- PanSCan
- Status last verified
- Jan 2026
- First submitted
- 21 May 2025
- Last updated
- 6 Jan 2026
- Results posted
- No
- Data monitoring committee
- No
- FDA-regulated drug
- No
- FDA-regulated device
- No
- Individual data sharing
- No: Sharing of individual participant data (IPD) is not possible because the data originate from the Bavarian Cancer Registry, where legal restrictions and strict data protection regulations prohibit the disclosure of patient-level data. These measures are in place to safeguard participant privacy and ensure compliance with applicable ethical and legal standards.
Study at a glance
From the registry record, last updated by the sponsor on 6 Jan 2026. Recruitment status is as the sponsor reported it: confirm with the study team.
- Official title
- Evaluation of Spatiotemporal Associations Between the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Incidence of Cancer Diagnoses in Bavaria, Germany: A Registry-based Study (PanSCan)
- ClinicalTrials.gov ID
- NCT07008560
- Acronym / sponsor ID
- PanSCan / 2025-1014
- Conditions
- Cancer
- Keywords
- Cancer registration, Registry data, Population-based analysis, Incidence, COVID-19, Pandemics, Cancer
- Study type
- Observational
- Recruitment status
- Active, not recruiting
- Enrolment
- 438,000 participants (estimated)
- Lead sponsor
- Bavarian Cancer RegistryOther government
- Collaborators
- Ludwig-Maximilians - University of Munich
- Study start
- 3 Sep 2025 (actual)
- Primary completion
- 31 Dec 2025 (estimated)
- Study completion
- 28 Feb 2026 (estimated)
- First posted
- 6 Jun 2025 (actual)
- Results
- Not posted in the source record
Clinical summary
The research question as the sponsor registered it. This describes what the study plans to test, not what it found.
The COVID-19 pandemic has placed a significant strain on healthcare systems worldwide and has also impacted the diagnosis and treatment of cancer. In Germany, there was a notable decline in cancer diagnoses during the pandemic, partly due to delays in early detection and limited access to medical treatments.
This study examines how the number of cancer cases in Bavaria changed before and during the pandemic, taking various factors into account, such as the socioeconomic status of different regions, the age of affected individuals, and the severity of the pandemic in each region.
We aim to determine whether certain regions or specific types of tumors experienced greater declines in diagnoses, particularly for cancers with regular screening programs. The study seeks to provide a better understanding of how different social and geographical conditions influenced cancer diagnoses during the pandemic. These insights could help improve future preparedness for health crises like the pandemic and ensure that cancer treatment continues to function effectively even in times of crisis.
Detailed description
The COVID-19 pandemic has exerted significant pressure on healthcare systems worldwide, particularly impacting the diagnosis and treatment of non-communicable diseases such as cancer. In Germany, substantial declines in cancer diagnoses have been observed, primarily due to delays in early detection and limited access to medical services during the pandemic. This study aims to investigate the regional and temporal variations in cancer incidence in Bavaria before and during the pandemic, taking into account socio-economic, demographic factors, and the severity of the pandemic.
This registry-based study utilizes data from the Bavarian Cancer Registry spanning from 2018 to 2023. The analysis adopts a spatiotemporal approach to examine changes in cancer incidence over time at the district level in Bavaria. A Bayesian spatiotemporal Poisson model with a Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) structure will be employed to account for both spatial and temporal variations, as well as spatial correlations between neighboring districts. The analysis will incorporate demographic characteristics, socio-economic status, tumor-specific data, and regional variations in the severity of the pandemic.
It is hypothesized that the pandemic has led to regional disparities in cancer incidence, with socio-economically disadvantaged areas potentially being more severely affected. Tumors associated with established screening programs, such as breast, colon, and cervical cancer, may have experienced a greater reduction in diagnoses compared to other cancer types.
The findings of this study will provide valuable insights into how geographical and socio-economic factors influenced cancer incidence during the pandemic and how these inequalities were exacerbated. The results could inform future health policies aimed at ensuring the continued accessibility of cancer detection and treatment, even during public health crises.
Study design
- Observational model
- Ecologic or community
- Time perspective
- Retrospective
- Number of arms
- 1
| Arm | Type | Receives |
|---|---|---|
| Bavarian Cancer Registry Cohort (2018-2023) | – | –The study cohort consists of all incident cancer cases diagnosed in individuals aged 18 years and older in Bavaria, Germany, between January 1, 2018, and December 31, 2023. Eligible cases were identified through the Bavarian Cancer Registry and include carcinoma in situ. |
Who may qualify
- Ages
- 18 years and older
- Sex
- All
- Healthy volunteers
- Not accepted
- Age groups
- Adult, Older adult
- Study population
- The study includes all individuals aged 18 years and older with an incident diagnosis of cancer, including carcinoma in situ, recorded in the Bavarian Cancer Registry between 2018 and 2023.
Key inclusion criteria (1 listed)
- All incident cancer cases among individuals aged 18 years and older, including carcinoma in situ, diagnosed between 2018 and 2023 within Bavaria and recorded in the Bavarian Cancer Registry.
Key exclusion criteria (1 listed)
- Death Certificate Only (DCO) cases. as they lack essential clinical information and the recorded date of diagnosis is in most cases the date of death, leading to temporal distortions in incidence estimates.
Eligibility is decided by the study team after screening; this overview does not establish that a patient qualifies. Full inclusion and exclusion criteria.
Primary outcome
Newly diagnosed cancer cases
Time frame: 2018 to 2023
Number of incident cancer cases per district and month in Bavaria, Germany
Results and safety
This study is still under way. Results are not available in the source record yet.
Research links
- Official record on ClinicalTrials.govLast updated by the sponsor 6 Jan 2026.
- Bavarian Cancer RegistryLink provided by the sponsor.
- Individual participant dataSharing planned: No. Sharing of individual participant data (IPD) is not possible because the data originate from the Bavarian Cancer Registry, where legal restrictions and strict data protection regulations prohibit the disclosure of patient-level data. These measures are in place to safeguard participant privacy and ensure compliance with applicable ethical and legal standards.
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Referral and contact
AzTrials does not enrol participants or take referrals. Contact the study team or a site listed below; they decide who can take part. This study is not recruiting at the moment.
Jacqueline Müller-Nordhorn, Prof. Dr. principal investigator
Bavarian Cancer Registry, Bavarian Health and Food Safety Authority
1 site in 1 country: see every site and its status.
Questions about this trial
What is this clinical trial studying?
An observational study of Cancer, run by Bavarian Cancer Registry at 1 site in Germany.
The full registered description is in the About this study section and the official record.
Who may be eligible to take part?
The sponsor lists 1 inclusion and 1 exclusion criteria. Eligibility is decided by the study team after screening, so read the full criteria and contact a listed site.
Is this clinical trial currently recruiting?
The record says: under way, not looking for participants, as of the sponsor's last update on 6 Jan 2026. Status can change between updates, so confirm with the study contact before making plans.
Where is the study taking place?
The record lists 1 site in Germany. Whether a site is taking part right now should be confirmed with that site. See every site.
What are the possible benefits and risks?
They depend on the study and the treatment, and no study can promise a benefit. The study team explains the known risks during informed consent, before anyone joins; the record itself does not list them.
Are results available for this study?
This study is still under way. Results are not available in the source record yet.
How can a doctor refer a patient or contact the research team?
The record lists no contact. The official record names the sponsor, who can be asked directly. AzTrials does not enrol participants or take referrals.
What does the primary outcome measure?
Newly diagnosed cancer cases (time frame: 2018 to 2023). It is what the study was designed to measure, not a finding.
Where can I read the original study information?
Does a listing mean the treatment is approved or proven to work?
No. A listing means the study is registered. It does not show that the treatment is safe, works, or is approved by a regulator.
How often is this information updated?
AzTrials copies changed records from ClinicalTrials.gov every night and reloads the whole registry every week. The sponsor last updated this record on 6 Jan 2026.