ElderlyPROFACTHOSNCT07475442
Prognostic Factors of Hospitalization for Patients Aged 75 and Over in Emergency Department in France - Monocentric Retrospective Cohort Study
An observational study of Elderly and Emergency Departments, run by Poitiers University Hospital at 1 site in France.
Trial summary
A geriatric patient is defined as a patient aged 75 and over who meets certain medical or social vulnerability criteria and is characterised by coexisting physical and/or psychological dependence. The proportion of patients with a geriatric profile in the general population is growing. Read more about this study
- Who is it for?
- Ages 75 years and older
- Conditions the study is for
- Elderly, Emergency Departments, Prognostic Factors
- How many people
- 967 participants
- Where
- 1 siteFrance
- Study dates
- 15 Mar 2026to 15 Apr 2027
- Phase
- Observational
- Are there results?
- Not yet: the study is under way
Key requirements
Who can take part, as listed by the sponsor. Only the study team can confirm whether you are eligible, so take this list to your doctor.
- Ages 75 years and older
- All sexes
- No healthy volunteers
- Older adult
Study population: Elderly patients, over or equal 75 years old, admitted to the emergency department in the inclusion period
Who may be able to join
- Adult over or equal 75 years old
- Patient admitted to the emergency department between 10/01/2022 and 09/30/2023 for the second group, and between 10/01/2024 and 09/30/2025 for the first group
- Patient and/or family and/or trusteeship who doesn't refused to participate
Who cannot join
- Patient died before admitted to emergency department
- Patient already included in the study
- File created by mistake, identified by the mention "Erreur de dossier"
- Patient deprived of total or partial liberty by a judicial or administrative decision
Trial locations and contacts
1 site in 1 country. Contact the study team or a site near you to ask about taking part.
Manon BOILLET, Advanced Practice Nurse contact
Christine SZCZUCZYNSKI, Advanced Practice Nurse contact
France1 site
CHU Poitiers
Poitiers, France, 86021
Manon BOILLET, Advanced Practice Nurse, +33 05 49 44 44 44 ext. 45340, manon.boillet@chu-poitiers.fr
Christine SZCZUCZYNSKI, Advanced Practice Nurse, +33 05 49 44 44 44 ext. 45734, christine.szczuczynski@chu-poitiers.fr
About this study
Official title: Prognostic Factors of Hospitalization for Patients Aged 75 and Over in Emergency Department in France - Monocentric Retrospective Cohort Study - PROFACTHOS
A geriatric patient is defined as a patient aged 75 and over who meets certain medical or social vulnerability criteria and is characterised by coexisting physical and/or psychological dependence. The proportion of patients with a geriatric profile in the general population is growing. The average time spent in the emergency department by the elderly population is about 3 hours longer than for patients under 75 years old in France, which is associated with the risk of decompensation of chronic conditions, confusion, falls or agitation. An overnight stay in the emergency department for these patients increases the risk of mortality and the length of hospital stay.
Several prognostic scores for hospitalization have been studied in adult populations. The most widely used scores are the Sydney Triage to Admission Risk Tool (START), the Ambulatory (AMB) and the Glasgow Admission Prediction Score (GAPS). Studies have compared these three scores and demonstrated the greater robustness of GAPS. The CalcuLation of the Elderly Admission Risk in the Emergency Department (CLEARED) tool, developed for the elderly population, has lower performance than GAPS. A systematic review of the literature studied the power of GAPS for the geriatric population and highlighted the need for validation in the target population. No validated hospitalization prognostic score was found in France for this population. The research hypothesis is that GAPS would detect hight probability of admission at the time of triage for the patients aged 75 and over in emergency department in France. The primary objective of this monocentric study is to evaluate the prognostic performance of GAPS for the target population (on the group 1). The secondary objectives consist of developing and internally validating a new score (PROFACTHOS) (on the group 2), then performing a temporal validation of PROFACTHOS with comparison to the GAPS (on the group 1), and finally to determine the threshold for classifying patients with a high probability of hospitalization for the score with the strongest discriminatory performance among GAPS or PROFACTHOS.
Read more
Group 1: Patients aged 75 and over admitted to emergency department from 10/01/2024 to 09/30/2025.
Group 2 : Patients aged 75 and over admitted to emergency department from 10/01/2022 to 09/30/2023
- Conditions
- Elderly, Emergency Departments, Prognostic Factors, Hospitalizations
- Medical subject headings
- Emergencies
What is being measured
The primary outcome is the main question the study is designed to answer.
To evaluate the prognostic performance of GAPS in a population of patients aged 75 and over admitted to emergency departments in France
The performance of GAPS will be evaluated by measuring the area under the ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve (AUC) with the population of group 1.
Measured: 1 day
Secondary outcomes (4)
To develop a prognostic hospitalization score (PROFACTHOS) based on data from the patient's initial clinical exam.
The PROFACTHOS prognostic score will be developed to predict the following binary event: hospitalization of the patient at the end of treatment. Potential predictive factors were established based on existing literature and by consulting a team of emergency physicians and geriatricians at Poitiers University Hospital. The performance of the prognostic score will be evaluated using the AUC (area under the ROC curve) and the Brier score. It will be carried out with the population of group 2.
Measured: 1 day
Temporal validation of the hospitalization prognostic score PROFACTHOS
The PROFACTHOS hospitalization prognostic score will be temporally validated using data from a time period independent of that used for its construction, with patients from group 1. The performance of the score will be measured by the area under the ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve (AUC) and the Brier score.
Measured: 1 day
To compare the performance of both scores GAPS and PROFACTHOS
The prognostic performance of the GAPS and PROFACTHOS scores will be evaluated and compared by their AUC, with patients from group 1.
Measured: 1 day
To determine the threshold for classifying patients with a high probability of hospitalization for the score with the strongest discriminatory performance among GAPS or PROFACTHOS
The threshold will be determined in order to obtain optimal positive and negative predictive values.
Measured: 1 day
Timeline
From the start of the study to its completion; the mark is today. Estimated dates are the sponsor’s plan.
- First posted16 Mar 2026
- Study start15 Mar 2026 (estimated)
- Primary completion15 Mar 2027 (estimated)
- Study completion15 Apr 2027 (estimated)
Resources
- Official record on ClinicalTrials.govThe registry entry this page is built from, with its full change history.
- Other trials for ElderlyStudies of the same condition, open and under way.
- More trials run by Poitiers University HospitalThe sponsor's other registered studies.
- What the trial phases meanHow a treatment moves from first tests in people to approval.
More details
For doctors and researchers: how the study is designed, who runs it, and its registry IDs.
Study design
- Study type
- Observational
- Observational model
- Cohort
- Time perspective
- Retrospective
- Enrolment
- 967 participants (estimated)
Sponsor and investigators
- Lead sponsor
- Poitiers University Hospital
- Sponsor type
- University, hospital or other
- Responsible party
- Sponsor
IDs, dates and publications
- ClinicalTrials.gov ID
- NCT07475442
- Sponsor's protocol ID
- PROFACTHOS
- Acronym
- PROFACTHOS
- Status last verified
- Mar 2026
- First submitted
- 10 Mar 2026
- Last updated
- 16 Mar 2026
- Results posted
- No
- Data monitoring committee
- No
- FDA-regulated drug
- No
- FDA-regulated device
- No
Study at a glance
From the registry record, last updated by the sponsor on 16 Mar 2026. Recruitment status is as the sponsor reported it: confirm with the study team.
- Official title
- Prognostic Factors of Hospitalization for Patients Aged 75 and Over in Emergency Department in France - Monocentric Retrospective Cohort Study - PROFACTHOS
- ClinicalTrials.gov ID
- NCT07475442
- Acronym / sponsor ID
- PROFACTHOS / PROFACTHOS
- Conditions
- Elderly, Emergency Departments, Prognostic Factors, Hospitalizations
- Study type
- Observational
- Recruitment status
- Not yet recruiting
- Enrolment
- 967 participants (estimated)
- Lead sponsor
- Poitiers University HospitalUniversity, hospital or other
- Study start
- 15 Mar 2026 (estimated)
- Primary completion
- 15 Mar 2027 (estimated)
- Study completion
- 15 Apr 2027 (estimated)
- First posted
- 16 Mar 2026 (actual)
- Results
- Not posted in the source record
Clinical summary
The research question as the sponsor registered it. This describes what the study plans to test, not what it found.
A geriatric patient is defined as a patient aged 75 and over who meets certain medical or social vulnerability criteria and is characterised by coexisting physical and/or psychological dependence. The proportion of patients with a geriatric profile in the general population is growing. The average time spent in the emergency department by the elderly population is about 3 hours longer than for patients under 75 years old in France, which is associated with the risk of decompensation of chronic conditions, confusion, falls or agitation. An overnight stay in the emergency department for these patients increases the risk of mortality and the length of hospital stay.
Several prognostic scores for hospitalization have been studied in adult populations. The most widely used scores are the Sydney Triage to Admission Risk Tool (START), the Ambulatory (AMB) and the Glasgow Admission Prediction Score (GAPS). Studies have compared these three scores and demonstrated the greater robustness of GAPS. The CalcuLation of the Elderly Admission Risk in the Emergency Department (CLEARED) tool, developed for the elderly population, has lower performance than GAPS. A systematic review of the literature studied the power of GAPS for the geriatric population and highlighted the need for validation in the target population. No validated hospitalization prognostic score was found in France for this population. The research hypothesis is that GAPS would detect hight probability of admission at the time of triage for the patients aged 75 and over in emergency department in France. The primary objective of this monocentric study is to evaluate the prognostic performance of GAPS for the target population (on the group 1). The secondary objectives consist of developing and internally validating a new score (PROFACTHOS) (on the group 2), then performing a temporal validation of PROFACTHOS with comparison to the GAPS (on the group 1), and finally to determine the threshold for classifying patients with a high probability of hospitalization for the score with the strongest discriminatory performance among GAPS or PROFACTHOS.
Group 1: Patients aged 75 and over admitted to emergency department from 10/01/2024 to 09/30/2025.
Group 2 : Patients aged 75 and over admitted to emergency department from 10/01/2022 to 09/30/2023
Study design
- Observational model
- Cohort
- Time perspective
- Retrospective
Who may qualify
- Ages
- 75 years and older
- Sex
- All
- Healthy volunteers
- Not accepted
- Age groups
- Older adult
- Study population
- Elderly patients, over or equal 75 years old, admitted to the emergency department in the inclusion period
Key inclusion criteria (3 listed)
- Adult over or equal 75 years old
- Patient admitted to the emergency department between 10/01/2022 and 09/30/2023 for the second group, and between 10/01/2024 and 09/30/2025 for the first group
- Patient and/or family and/or trusteeship who doesn't refused to participate
Key exclusion criteria (4 listed)
- Patient died before admitted to emergency department
- Patient already included in the study
- File created by mistake, identified by the mention "Erreur de dossier"
- Patient deprived of total or partial liberty by a judicial or administrative decision
Eligibility is decided by the study team after screening; this overview does not establish that a patient qualifies. Full inclusion and exclusion criteria.
Primary outcome
To evaluate the prognostic performance of GAPS in a population of patients aged 75 and over admitted to emergency departments in France
Time frame: 1 day
The performance of GAPS will be evaluated by measuring the area under the ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve (AUC) with the population of group 1.
4 secondary outcomes
To develop a prognostic hospitalization score (PROFACTHOS) based on data from the patient's initial clinical exam.
Time frame: 1 day
Temporal validation of the hospitalization prognostic score PROFACTHOS
Time frame: 1 day
To compare the performance of both scores GAPS and PROFACTHOS
Time frame: 1 day
To determine the threshold for classifying patients with a high probability of hospitalization for the score with the strongest discriminatory performance among GAPS or PROFACTHOS
Time frame: 1 day
Results and safety
This study is still under way. Results are not available in the source record yet.
Research links
- Official record on ClinicalTrials.govLast updated by the sponsor 16 Mar 2026.
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Referral and contact
AzTrials does not enrol participants or take referrals. Contact the study team or a site listed below; they decide who can take part.
Manon BOILLET, Advanced Practice Nurse contact
Christine SZCZUCZYNSKI, Advanced Practice Nurse contact
1 site in 1 country: see every site and its status.
Questions about this trial
What is this clinical trial studying?
An observational study of Elderly and Emergency Departments, run by Poitiers University Hospital at 1 site in France.
The full registered description is in the About this study section and the official record.
Who may be eligible to take part?
The sponsor lists 3 inclusion and 4 exclusion criteria. Eligibility is decided by the study team after screening, so read the full criteria and contact a listed site.
Is this clinical trial currently recruiting?
The record says: opening soon, as of the sponsor's last update on 16 Mar 2026. Status can change between updates, so confirm with the study contact before making plans.
Where is the study taking place?
The record lists 1 site in France. Whether a site is taking part right now should be confirmed with that site. See every site.
What are the possible benefits and risks?
They depend on the study and the treatment, and no study can promise a benefit. The study team explains the known risks during informed consent, before anyone joins; the record itself does not list them.
Are results available for this study?
This study is still under way. Results are not available in the source record yet.
How can a doctor refer a patient or contact the research team?
Contact Manon BOILLET, Advanced Practice Nurse (+33 05 49 44 44 44 ext. 45340, manon.boillet@chu-poitiers.fr), or a site near the patient. AzTrials does not enrol participants or take referrals.
What does the primary outcome measure?
To evaluate the prognostic performance of GAPS in a population of patients aged 75 and over admitted to emergency departments in France (time frame: 1 day). It is what the study was designed to measure, not a finding.
Where can I read the original study information?
Does a listing mean the treatment is approved or proven to work?
No. A listing means the study is registered. It does not show that the treatment is safe, works, or is approved by a regulator.
How often is this information updated?
AzTrials copies changed records from ClinicalTrials.gov every night and reloads the whole registry every week. The sponsor last updated this record on 16 Mar 2026.