Acute Pancreatitis (AP)NEWSNCT07640971
Predictive Performance of NEWS-2 and NEWS-Calcium Scores for In-Hospital Mortality in Older Patients With Acute Pancreatitis
An observational study of Acute Pancreatitis (AP) and News-2, run by Antalya Health Sciences University at 1 site in Turkey (Türkiye).
Trial summary
Acute pancreatitis is an important gastrointestinal emergency that may lead to mortality, particularly in older patients. This retrospective, single-center observational prognostic validation study aims to compare the predictive performance of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS-2) and NEWS-Calcium scores for… Read more about this study
- Who is it for?
- Ages 65 years and older
- Conditions the study is for
- Acute Pancreatitis (AP), News-2, Prediction of In-Hospital Mortality in Older Patients With Acute Pancreatitis
- What is being tested?
- Retrospective Calculation of NEWS-2 Score
- How many people
- 350 participants
- Where
- 1 siteTurkey (Türkiye)
- Study dates
- 15 Jul 2026to 15 Oct 2026
- How long will I take part?
- 1 Month
- Phase
- Observational
- Are there results?
- Not yet: the study is under way
Key requirements
Who can take part, as listed by the sponsor. Only the study team can confirm whether you are eligible, so take this list to your doctor.
- Ages 65 years and older
- All sexes
- No healthy volunteers
- Older adult
Study population: The study population will consist of patients aged 65 years and older who were admitted to the emergency department and diagnosed with acute pancreatitis during the predefined study period. Eligible patients will be identified retrospectively through electronic medical records. Patients with available admission vital signs, serum calcium levels, and in-hospital outcome data will be included. Patients with missing data required for calculation of NEWS-2 or NEWS-Calcium scores, unavailable outcome data, or transfer before outcome assessment will be excluded. Only the first eligible admission will be analyzed for patients with recurrent admissions.
Who may be able to join
- Age 65 years or older.
- Admission to the emergency department with a diagnosis of acute pancreatitis during the study period.
- Diagnosis of acute pancreatitis established according to clinical presentation, serum pancreatic enzyme levels, and/or imaging findings.
- Availability of admission vital parameters required to calculate the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS-2).
- Availability of serum calcium measurement at emergency department admission.
- Availability of in-hospital clinical outcome data.
Who cannot join
- Age younger than 65 years.
- Absence of a confirmed diagnosis of acute pancreatitis.
- Missing data required to calculate NEWS-2 or NEWS-Calcium scores.
- Missing serum calcium measurement at admission.
- Incomplete medical records or unavailable in-hospital outcome data.
- Transfer to another hospital before clinical outcome assessment.
- Recurrent admissions during the study period; only the first eligible admission will be analyzed.
Trial locations and contacts
1 site in 1 country. Contact the study team or a site near you to ask about taking part.
Turkey (Türkiye)1 site
University of Health Sciences, Antalya Training and Research Hospital
Antalya, konyaaltı, 07100
MURAT DUYAN, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, +905404120735, drmuratduyan@gmail.com
About this study
Official title: Comparison of the Predictive Performance of NEWS-2 and NEWS-Calcium Scores on In-Hospital Mortality in Patients Aged 65 Years and Older Diagnosed With Acute Pancreatitis in the Emergency Department.
Acute pancreatitis is an important gastrointestinal emergency that may lead to mortality, particularly in older patients. This retrospective, single-center observational prognostic validation study aims to compare the predictive performance of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS-2) and NEWS-Calcium scores for in-hospital mortality in patients aged 65 years and older diagnosed with acute pancreatitis in the emergency department.
Electronic medical records of eligible patients will be reviewed retrospectively. Demographic characteristics, vital signs, serum calcium levels, clinical outcomes, intensive care unit admission, organ failure, length of hospital stay, and in-hospital mortality will be recorded. NEWS-2 will be calculated using vital parameters at admission, while the NEWS-Calcium score will be obtained by adding a calcium-based score to NEWS-2.
The primary outcome will be in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes will include intensive care unit admission, severe acute pancreatitis, persistent organ failure, and length of hospital stay. The predictive performances of the scores will be compared using ROC curve analysis, AUC values, and the DeLong test. This study aims to identify the most appropriate early prognostic score for older patients with acute pancreatitis and to support clinical decision-making in emergency settings.
Read the detailed description
Acute pancreatitis is a common gastrointestinal emergency that may be associated with significant morbidity and mortality, particularly in older patients. In individuals aged 65 years and older, reduced physiological reserve, increased comorbidity burden, and delayed clinical deterioration may make early risk stratification more important in the emergency department.
The National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS-2) is a widely used clinical scoring system based on routinely measured physiological parameters, including respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, systolic blood pressure, pulse rate, level of consciousness, temperature, and supplemental oxygen use. Calcium abnormalities, especially hypocalcemia, may also be associated with disease severity and poor outcomes in acute pancreatitis. Therefore, a calcium-integrated scoring approach may improve early prognostic assessment in this patient population.
This study is designed as a single-center, retrospective, observational prognostic validation study. The study will include patients aged 65 years and older who were admitted to the emergency department and diagnosed with acute pancreatitis during the predefined study period. Eligible patients will be identified through electronic medical records. Demographic characteristics, comorbidities, vital signs at emergency department admission, laboratory parameters including serum calcium levels, clinical outcomes, intensive care unit admission, organ failure status, length of hospital stay, and in-hospital mortality will be recorded.
The NEWS-2 score will be calculated using physiological parameters measured at the time of emergency department admission. The NEWS-Calcium score will be calculated by adding a calcium-based component to the NEWS-2 score according to serum total or corrected calcium levels. The primary outcome of the study will be in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes will include intensive care unit admission, development of severe acute pancreatitis, persistent organ failure, and length of hospital stay.
The main objective of this study is to compare the predictive performance of NEWS-2 and NEWS-Calcium scores for in-hospital mortality in older patients with acute pancreatitis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis will be used to evaluate the prognostic performance of each score. The area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and optimal cut-off values will be calculated. The AUC values of NEWS-2 and NEWS-Calcium will be compared using the DeLong test.
This study is expected to provide evidence on whether the addition of serum calcium to NEWS-2 improves early mortality prediction in geriatric patients with acute pancreatitis. The findings may contribute to early risk stratification, clinical decision-making, and appropriate allocation of intensive care resources in the emergency department.
- Conditions
- Acute Pancreatitis (AP), News-2, Prediction of In-Hospital Mortality in Older Patients With Acute Pancreatitis
- Being tested
- Retrospective Calculation of NEWS-2 Score
- Keywords
- Acute Pancreatitis, In-Hospital Mortality, Older Adults, Emergency Department Risk Stratification
- Medical subject headings
- Pancreatitis
What participants receive
What participants receive. In a randomised study each person is assigned to one group by chance.
Retrospective Calculation of NEWS-2 ScoreOther
he National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS-2) will be calculated retrospectively using physiological parameters recorded at emergency department admission, including respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, systolic blood pressure, pulse rate, level of consciousness, body temperature, and supplemental oxygen use. No intervention will be administered to patients as part of this study.
| Study group | Role | What they receive |
|---|---|---|
| Patients Aged 65 Years and Older with Acute Pancreatitis | This cohort will include patients aged 65 years and older diagnosed with acute pancreatitis in the emergency department. Data will be collected retrospectively from electronic medical records. No intervention will be administered. NEWS-2 and NEWS-Calcium scores will be calculated using admission data, and their predictive performance for in-hospital mortality will be compared. Receives: Other: Retrospective Calculation of NEWS-2 Score |
What is being measured
The primary outcome is the main question the study is designed to answer.
In-Hospital Mortality
n-hospital mortality will be defined as death occurring during the index hospitalization among patients aged 65 years and older diagnosed with acute pancreatitis in the emergency department. Mortality status will be obtained retrospectively from electronic medical records.
Measured: From emergency department admission to hospital discharge or in-hospital death, up to 30 days.
Timeline
From the start of the study to its completion; the mark is today. Estimated dates are the sponsor’s plan.
- First posted11 Jun 2026
- Study start15 Jul 2026 (estimated)
- Primary completion15 Sep 2026 (estimated)
- Study completion15 Oct 2026 (estimated)
Resources
- Official record on ClinicalTrials.govThe registry entry this page is built from, with its full change history.
- Publications (1)Papers the sponsor has linked to this study.
- Other trials for Acute Pancreatitis (AP)Studies of the same condition, open and under way.
- What the trial phases meanHow a treatment moves from first tests in people to approval.
More details
For doctors and researchers: how the study is designed, who runs it, and its registry IDs.
Study design
- Study type
- Observational
- Observational model
- Case-control
- Time perspective
- Cross-sectional
- Enrolment
- 350 participants (estimated)
- Target duration
- 1 Month
Sponsor and investigators
- Lead sponsor
- Antalya Health Sciences University
- Sponsor type
- University, hospital or other
- Responsible party
- Sponsor
IDs, dates and publications
- ClinicalTrials.gov ID
- NCT07640971
- Sponsor's protocol ID
- 9/23
- Acronym
- NEWS
- Status last verified
- Jun 2026
- First submitted
- 6 Jun 2026
- Last updated
- 11 Jun 2026
- Results posted
- No
- Data monitoring committee
- No
- FDA-regulated drug
- No
- FDA-regulated device
- No
- Individual data sharing
- No: Individual participant data will not be shared. This is a retrospective study based on electronic medical records, and individual-level patient data will not be made available to other researchers due to confidentiality, ethical, and institutional data protection regulations. Only aggregated and anonymized study results will be reported.
Publications
Tan JW, Zhang XQ, Geng CM, Peng LL. Development of the National Early Warning Score-Calcium Model for Predicting Adverse Outcomes in Patients With Acute Pancreatitis. J Emerg Nurs. 2020 Mar;46(2):171-179. doi: 10.1016/j.jen.2019.11.003. Epub 2019 Dec 19.
PubMed 31866070
Study at a glance
From the registry record, last updated by the sponsor on 11 Jun 2026. Recruitment status is as the sponsor reported it: confirm with the study team.
- Official title
- Comparison of the Predictive Performance of NEWS-2 and NEWS-Calcium Scores on In-Hospital Mortality in Patients Aged 65 Years and Older Diagnosed With Acute Pancreatitis in the Emergency Department.
- ClinicalTrials.gov ID
- NCT07640971
- Acronym / sponsor ID
- NEWS / 9/23
- Conditions
- Acute Pancreatitis (AP), News-2, Prediction of In-Hospital Mortality in Older Patients With Acute Pancreatitis
- Keywords
- Acute Pancreatitis, In-Hospital Mortality, Older Adults, Emergency Department Risk Stratification
- Study type
- Observational
- Recruitment status
- Not yet recruiting
- Enrolment
- 350 participants (estimated)
- Lead sponsor
- Antalya Health Sciences UniversityUniversity, hospital or other
- Study start
- 15 Jul 2026 (estimated)
- Primary completion
- 15 Sep 2026 (estimated)
- Study completion
- 15 Oct 2026 (estimated)
- First posted
- 11 Jun 2026 (actual)
- Results
- Not posted in the source record
Clinical summary
The research question as the sponsor registered it. This describes what the study plans to test, not what it found.
Acute pancreatitis is an important gastrointestinal emergency that may lead to mortality, particularly in older patients. This retrospective, single-center observational prognostic validation study aims to compare the predictive performance of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS-2) and NEWS-Calcium scores for in-hospital mortality in patients aged 65 years and older diagnosed with acute pancreatitis in the emergency department.
Electronic medical records of eligible patients will be reviewed retrospectively. Demographic characteristics, vital signs, serum calcium levels, clinical outcomes, intensive care unit admission, organ failure, length of hospital stay, and in-hospital mortality will be recorded. NEWS-2 will be calculated using vital parameters at admission, while the NEWS-Calcium score will be obtained by adding a calcium-based score to NEWS-2.
The primary outcome will be in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes will include intensive care unit admission, severe acute pancreatitis, persistent organ failure, and length of hospital stay. The predictive performances of the scores will be compared using ROC curve analysis, AUC values, and the DeLong test. This study aims to identify the most appropriate early prognostic score for older patients with acute pancreatitis and to support clinical decision-making in emergency settings.
Detailed description
Acute pancreatitis is a common gastrointestinal emergency that may be associated with significant morbidity and mortality, particularly in older patients. In individuals aged 65 years and older, reduced physiological reserve, increased comorbidity burden, and delayed clinical deterioration may make early risk stratification more important in the emergency department.
The National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS-2) is a widely used clinical scoring system based on routinely measured physiological parameters, including respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, systolic blood pressure, pulse rate, level of consciousness, temperature, and supplemental oxygen use. Calcium abnormalities, especially hypocalcemia, may also be associated with disease severity and poor outcomes in acute pancreatitis. Therefore, a calcium-integrated scoring approach may improve early prognostic assessment in this patient population.
This study is designed as a single-center, retrospective, observational prognostic validation study. The study will include patients aged 65 years and older who were admitted to the emergency department and diagnosed with acute pancreatitis during the predefined study period. Eligible patients will be identified through electronic medical records. Demographic characteristics, comorbidities, vital signs at emergency department admission, laboratory parameters including serum calcium levels, clinical outcomes, intensive care unit admission, organ failure status, length of hospital stay, and in-hospital mortality will be recorded.
The NEWS-2 score will be calculated using physiological parameters measured at the time of emergency department admission. The NEWS-Calcium score will be calculated by adding a calcium-based component to the NEWS-2 score according to serum total or corrected calcium levels. The primary outcome of the study will be in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes will include intensive care unit admission, development of severe acute pancreatitis, persistent organ failure, and length of hospital stay.
The main objective of this study is to compare the predictive performance of NEWS-2 and NEWS-Calcium scores for in-hospital mortality in older patients with acute pancreatitis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis will be used to evaluate the prognostic performance of each score. The area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and optimal cut-off values will be calculated. The AUC values of NEWS-2 and NEWS-Calcium will be compared using the DeLong test.
This study is expected to provide evidence on whether the addition of serum calcium to NEWS-2 improves early mortality prediction in geriatric patients with acute pancreatitis. The findings may contribute to early risk stratification, clinical decision-making, and appropriate allocation of intensive care resources in the emergency department.
Study design
- Observational model
- Case-control
- Time perspective
- Cross-sectional
- Target follow-up
- 1 Month
- Number of arms
- 1
| Arm | Type | Receives |
|---|---|---|
| Patients Aged 65 Years and Older with Acute Pancreatitis | – | Other: Retrospective Calculation of NEWS-2 ScoreThis cohort will include patients aged 65 years and older diagnosed with acute pancreatitis in the emergency department. Data will be collected retrospectively from electronic medical records. No intervention will be administered. NEWS-2 and NEWS-Calcium scores will be calculated using admission data, and their predictive performance for in-hospital mortality will be compared. |
Who may qualify
- Ages
- 65 years and older
- Sex
- All
- Healthy volunteers
- Not accepted
- Age groups
- Older adult
- Study population
- The study population will consist of patients aged 65 years and older who were admitted to the emergency department and diagnosed with acute pancreatitis during the predefined study period. Eligible patients will be identified retrospectively through electronic medical records. Patients with available admission vital signs, serum calcium levels, and in-hospital outcome data will be included. Patients with missing data required for calculation of NEWS-2 or NEWS-Calcium scores, unavailable outcome data, or transfer before outcome assessment will be excluded. Only the first eligible admission will be analyzed for patients with recurrent admissions.
Key inclusion criteria (6 listed)
- Age 65 years or older.
- Admission to the emergency department with a diagnosis of acute pancreatitis during the study period.
- Diagnosis of acute pancreatitis established according to clinical presentation, serum pancreatic enzyme levels, and/or imaging findings.
- Availability of admission vital parameters required to calculate the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS-2).
- Availability of serum calcium measurement at emergency department admission.
Key exclusion criteria (7 listed)
- Age younger than 65 years.
- Absence of a confirmed diagnosis of acute pancreatitis.
- Missing data required to calculate NEWS-2 or NEWS-Calcium scores.
- Missing serum calcium measurement at admission.
- Incomplete medical records or unavailable in-hospital outcome data.
Eligibility is decided by the study team after screening; this overview does not establish that a patient qualifies. Full inclusion and exclusion criteria.
Interventions
| Intervention | Type | Arms |
|---|---|---|
| Retrospective Calculation of NEWS-2 Scorehe National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS-2) will be calculated retrospectively using physiological parameters recorded at emergency department admission, including respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, systolic blood pressure, pulse rate, level of consciousness, body temperature, and supplemental oxygen use. No intervention will be administered to patients as part of this study. | Other | Patients Aged 65 Years and Older with Acute Pancreatitis |
Primary outcome
In-Hospital Mortality
Time frame: From emergency department admission to hospital discharge or in-hospital death, up to 30 days.
n-hospital mortality will be defined as death occurring during the index hospitalization among patients aged 65 years and older diagnosed with acute pancreatitis in the emergency department. Mortality status will be obtained retrospectively from electronic medical records.
Results and safety
This study is still under way. Results are not available in the source record yet.
Research links
- Official record on ClinicalTrials.govLast updated by the sponsor 11 Jun 2026.
- Results publication: PubMed 31866070Tan JW, Zhang XQ, Geng CM, Peng LL. Development of the National Early Warning Score-Calcium Model for Predicting Adverse Outcomes in Patients With Acute Pancreatitis. J Emerg Nurs. 2020 Mar;46(2):171-179. doi: 10.1016/j.jen.2019.11.003. Epub 2019 Dec 19.
- Individual participant dataSharing planned: No. Individual participant data will not be shared. This is a retrospective study based on electronic medical records, and individual-level patient data will not be made available to other researchers due to confidentiality, ethical, and institutional data protection regulations. Only aggregated and anonymized study results will be reported.
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Referral and contact
AzTrials does not enrol participants or take referrals. Contact the study team or a site listed below; they decide who can take part.
1 site in 1 country: see every site and its status.
Questions about this trial
What is this clinical trial studying?
An observational study of Acute Pancreatitis (AP) and News-2, run by Antalya Health Sciences University at 1 site in Turkey (Türkiye).
The full registered description is in the About this study section and the official record.
Who may be eligible to take part?
The sponsor lists 6 inclusion and 7 exclusion criteria. Eligibility is decided by the study team after screening, so read the full criteria and contact a listed site.
Is this clinical trial currently recruiting?
The record says: opening soon, as of the sponsor's last update on 11 Jun 2026. Status can change between updates, so confirm with the study contact before making plans.
Where is the study taking place?
The record lists 1 site in Turkey (Türkiye). Whether a site is taking part right now should be confirmed with that site. See every site.
What are the possible benefits and risks?
They depend on the study and the treatment, and no study can promise a benefit. The study team explains the known risks during informed consent, before anyone joins; the record itself does not list them.
Are results available for this study?
This study is still under way. Results are not available in the source record yet.
How can a doctor refer a patient or contact the research team?
Contact MURAT DUYAN, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR (+905404120735, drmuratduyan@gmail.com), or a site near the patient. AzTrials does not enrol participants or take referrals.
What does the primary outcome measure?
In-Hospital Mortality (time frame: From emergency department admission to hospital discharge or in-hospital death, up to 30 days.). It is what the study was designed to measure, not a finding.
Where can I read the original study information?
On the ClinicalTrials.gov record for NCT07640971, which also lists 1 linked publication.
Does a listing mean the treatment is approved or proven to work?
No. A listing means the study is registered. It does not show that the treatment is safe, works, or is approved by a regulator.
How often is this information updated?
AzTrials copies changed records from ClinicalTrials.gov every night and reloads the whole registry every week. The sponsor last updated this record on 11 Jun 2026.