Burn InjuryBURN-PREDNCT07689890
Burn Mortality Prediction Scores
An observational study of Burn Injury and In-Hospital Mortality, run by Gaziantep City Hospital at 1 site in Turkey (Türkiye).
Trial summary
This retrospective observational cohort study evaluates hospitalized burn admissions treated at the Burn Center of Gaziantep City Hospital between October 2023 and February 2026. Read more about this study
- Who is it for?
- Any age
- Conditions the study is for
- Burn Injury, In-Hospital Mortality
- What is being tested?
- Retrospective Prognostic Score Assessment
- How many people
- 1,082 participants
- Where
- 1 siteTurkey (Türkiye)
- Study dates
- 7 Oct 2023to 28 Feb 2026
- Phase
- Observational
- Are there results?
- None posted in the registry
Key requirements
Who can take part, as listed by the sponsor. Only the study team can confirm whether you are eligible, so take this list to your doctor.
- Ages Any age
- All sexes
- No healthy volunteers
- Child, Adult, Older adult
Study population: The study population consists of hospitalized burn admissions treated at the Burn Center of Gaziantep City Hospital, a tertiary referral burn center, between October 2023 and February 2026. The cohort includes burn admissions with documented in-hospital outcomes and sufficient electronic medical record data for calculation of ABSI, Revised Baux score, and modified Ryan score.
Inclusion Criteria: Hospitalized burn admissions treated at the Burn Center of Gaziantep City Hospital between October 2023 and February 2026.
Admissions with a documented in-hospital outcome of discharge alive or death. Admissions with available electronic medical records for age, sex, total body surface area burned, burn depth, inhalation injury, and core clinical variables.
Exclusion Criteria: Admissions transferred to another facility before final clinical outcome assessment.
Admissions in which treatment was refused. Admissions without sufficient electronic medical record data for calculation of the prognostic scores or assessment of the primary outcome.
Trial locations and contacts
1 site in 1 country.
Turkey (Türkiye)1 site
Gaziantep City Hospital Burn Center
Gaziantep, Gaziantep, 27470
About this study
Official title: Comparative Performance of ABSI, Revised Baux Score, and Modified Ryan Score for In-Hospital Mortality Prediction in Hospitalized Burn Admissions: A Retrospective Cohort Study
This retrospective observational cohort study evaluates hospitalized burn admissions treated at the Burn Center of Gaziantep City Hospital between October 2023 and February 2026. The study aims to compare the ability of three burn severity scoring systems, the Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI), Revised Baux score, and modified Ryan score, to predict in-hospital mortality.
Electronic medical records were reviewed for demographic characteristics, burn-related variables, inhalation injury, burn depth, intensive care admission, mechanical ventilation, sepsis, surgical procedures, length of hospital stay, and survival status at hospital discharge. The primary outcome is in-hospital mortality. The predictive performance of the scoring systems will be evaluated using receiver operating characteristic analysis and logistic regression.
Read the detailed description
Burn injuries are associated with substantial morbidity, mortality, intensive care use, prolonged hospitalization, and surgical burden. Early identification of patients at high risk of death may support clinical triage, intensive care planning, resource allocation, and communication with patients' families.
This study is a single-center, retrospective, observational cohort study conducted at the Burn Center of Gaziantep City Hospital, a tertiary referral burn center serving southern Türkiye and cross-border regions. The study includes hospitalized burn admissions treated between October 2023 and February 2026.
A total of 1315 burn admission records were screened. Admissions transferred to another facility before final clinical outcome assessment and admissions in which treatment was refused were excluded. After applying eligibility criteria, 1082 hospitalized burn admissions were included in the primary analysis cohort.
The study evaluates the prognostic performance of the Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI), Revised Baux score, and modified Ryan score for predicting in-hospital mortality. ABSI is calculated using age, sex, total body surface area burned, inhalation injury, and full-thickness burn status. Revised Baux score is calculated using age, total body surface area burned, and the presence of inhalation injury. The modified Ryan score is calculated using age category, total body surface area burned category, inhalation injury, and third-degree burn status.
The primary outcome is in-hospital mortality, defined as death occurring during the index hospitalization. Secondary evaluations include associations between mortality and selected clinical variables, including inhalation injury, sepsis, intensive care admission, mechanical ventilation, number of surgical procedures, and length of hospital stay.
The discriminative performance of prognostic scores will be assessed using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Area under the curve, confidence intervals, optimal cut-off values, sensitivity, and specificity will be reported. Associations between score increments and mortality will be examined using univariable logistic regression.
- Conditions
- Burn Injury, In-Hospital Mortality
- Being tested
- Retrospective Prognostic Score Assessment
- Keywords
- ABSI, Revised Baux score, Modified Ryan score, Burn mortality, In-hospital mortality, Prognostic score, Retrospective cohort, Total body surface area burned, Inhalation injury, ROC analysis
- Medical subject headings
- Burns
What participants receive
What participants receive. In a randomised study each person is assigned to one group by chance.
Retrospective Prognostic Score AssessmentOther
Also called ABSI, Revised Baux score, Modified Ryan score
ABSI, Revised Baux score, and modified Ryan score were retrospectively calculated using routinely collected electronic medical record data from hospitalized burn admissions. These scores were evaluated for their ability to predict in-hospital mortality. No drug, device, procedure, or treatment intervention was assigned by the study protocol.
| Study group | Role | What they receive |
|---|---|---|
| Hospitalized Burn Admissions | Hospitalized burn admissions treated at the Burn Center of Gaziantep City Hospital between October 2023 and February 2026 and included in the retrospective primary analysis cohort. Prognostic scores, including ABSI, Revised Baux score, and modified Ryan score, were calculated from routinely recorded electronic medical data. No intervention was assigned by the study protocol. Receives: Other: Retrospective Prognostic Score Assessment |
What is being measured
The primary outcome is the main question the study is designed to answer.
In-Hospital Mortality
In-hospital mortality was defined as death occurring during the index hospitalization for burn injury. Mortality status was determined from electronic hospital records and was used as the primary outcome for evaluating the prognostic performance of burn severity scoring systems.
Measured: From hospital admission to hospital discharge or in-hospital death, assessed up to 240 days.
Secondary outcomes (4)
Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve for the Abbreviated Burn Severity Index
The Abbreviated Burn Severity Index was calculated using age, sex, total body surface area burned, inhalation injury, and full-thickness burn status recorded in electronic hospital records. Higher scores indicate greater burn severity and higher predicted mortality risk. Predictive discrimination for in-hospital mortality was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The area under the curve ranges from 0.0 to 1.0, with higher values indicating better discriminative performance.
Measured: Score variables were obtained from admission and early hospitalization records; in-hospital mortality was assessed from hospital admission to discharge or in-hospital death, up to 240 days.
Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve for the Revised Baux Score
The Revised Baux score was calculated using age, total body surface area burned, and the presence of inhalation injury. Higher scores indicate greater burn severity and higher predicted mortality risk. Predictive discrimination for in-hospital mortality was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The area under the curve ranges from 0.0 to 1.0, with higher values indicating better discriminative performance.
Measured: Score variables were obtained from admission and early hospitalization records; in-hospital mortality was assessed from hospital admission to discharge or in-hospital death, up to 240 days.
Predictive Performance of the Modified Ryan Score
The predictive performance of the modified Ryan score for in-hospital mortality was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Area under the curve, 95% confidence interval, optimal cut-off value, sensitivity, and specificity were calculated.
Measured: Score variables were obtained from admission and early hospitalization records; in-hospital mortality was assessed from hospital admission to discharge or in-hospital death, up to 240 days.
Association of Selected Clinical Factors With In-Hospital Mortality
The association of selected clinical factors, including inhalation injury, sepsis, intensive care admission, mechanical ventilation, number of surgical procedures, and length of hospital stay, with in-hospital mortality was evaluated using appropriate statistical analyses.
Measured: Clinical factors and mortality status were assessed from hospital admission to hospital discharge or in-hospital death, up to 240 days.
Timeline
From the start of the study to its completion; the mark is today. Estimated dates are the sponsor’s plan.
- First posted8 Jul 2026
- Study start7 Oct 2023
- Primary completion28 Feb 2026
- Study completion28 Feb 2026
Resources
- Official record on ClinicalTrials.govThe registry entry this page is built from, with its full change history.
- Publications (3)Papers the sponsor has linked to this study.
- Other trials for Burn InjuryStudies of the same condition, open and under way.
- What the trial phases meanHow a treatment moves from first tests in people to approval.
More details
For doctors and researchers: how the study is designed, who runs it, and its registry IDs.
Study design
- Study type
- Observational
- Observational model
- Cohort
- Time perspective
- Retrospective
- Enrolment
- 1,082 participants (actual)
Sponsor and investigators
- Lead sponsor
- Gaziantep City Hospital
- Sponsor type
- University, hospital or other
- Responsible party
- Sponsor
- Investigators
- Bekir Suat Kurkcuoglu, Principal investigator, Gaziantep City Hospital
IDs, dates and publications
- ClinicalTrials.gov ID
- NCT07689890
- Sponsor's protocol ID
- GCH-BURN-SCORES-2026
- Acronym
- BURN-PRED
- Status last verified
- Jun 2026
- First submitted
- 22 Jun 2026
- Last updated
- 8 Jul 2026
- Results posted
- No
- Data monitoring committee
- No
- FDA-regulated drug
- No
- FDA-regulated device
- No
- Individual data sharing
- No
Publications
Ryan CM, Schoenfeld DA, Thorpe WP, Sheridan RL, Cassem EH, Tompkins RG. Objective estimates of the probability of death from burn injuries. N Engl J Med. 1998 Feb 5;338(6):362-6. doi: 10.1056/NEJM199802053380604.
PubMed 9449729Osler T, Glance LG, Hosmer DW. Simplified estimates of the probability of death after burn injuries: extending and updating the baux score. J Trauma. 2010 Mar;68(3):690-7. doi: 10.1097/TA.0b013e3181c453b3.
PubMed 20038856Tobiasen J, Hiebert JM, Edlich RF. The abbreviated burn severity index. Ann Emerg Med. 1982 May;11(5):260-2. doi: 10.1016/s0196-0644(82)80096-6. No abstract available.
PubMed 7073049
Study at a glance
From the registry record, last updated by the sponsor on 8 Jul 2026. Recruitment status is as the sponsor reported it: confirm with the study team.
- Official title
- Comparative Performance of ABSI, Revised Baux Score, and Modified Ryan Score for In-Hospital Mortality Prediction in Hospitalized Burn Admissions: A Retrospective Cohort Study
- ClinicalTrials.gov ID
- NCT07689890
- Acronym / sponsor ID
- BURN-PRED / GCH-BURN-SCORES-2026
- Conditions
- Burn Injury, In-Hospital Mortality
- Keywords
- ABSI, Revised Baux score, Modified Ryan score, Burn mortality, In-hospital mortality, Prognostic score, Retrospective cohort, Total body surface area burned
- Study type
- Observational
- Recruitment status
- Completed
- Enrolment
- 1,082 participants (actual)
- Lead sponsor
- Gaziantep City HospitalUniversity, hospital or other
- Study start
- 7 Oct 2023 (actual)
- Primary completion
- 28 Feb 2026 (actual)
- Study completion
- 28 Feb 2026 (actual)
- First posted
- 8 Jul 2026 (actual)
- Results
- Not posted in the source record
Clinical summary
The research question as the sponsor registered it. This describes what the study plans to test, not what it found.
This retrospective observational cohort study evaluates hospitalized burn admissions treated at the Burn Center of Gaziantep City Hospital between October 2023 and February 2026. The study aims to compare the ability of three burn severity scoring systems, the Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI), Revised Baux score, and modified Ryan score, to predict in-hospital mortality.
Electronic medical records were reviewed for demographic characteristics, burn-related variables, inhalation injury, burn depth, intensive care admission, mechanical ventilation, sepsis, surgical procedures, length of hospital stay, and survival status at hospital discharge. The primary outcome is in-hospital mortality. The predictive performance of the scoring systems will be evaluated using receiver operating characteristic analysis and logistic regression.
Detailed description
Burn injuries are associated with substantial morbidity, mortality, intensive care use, prolonged hospitalization, and surgical burden. Early identification of patients at high risk of death may support clinical triage, intensive care planning, resource allocation, and communication with patients' families.
This study is a single-center, retrospective, observational cohort study conducted at the Burn Center of Gaziantep City Hospital, a tertiary referral burn center serving southern Türkiye and cross-border regions. The study includes hospitalized burn admissions treated between October 2023 and February 2026.
A total of 1315 burn admission records were screened. Admissions transferred to another facility before final clinical outcome assessment and admissions in which treatment was refused were excluded. After applying eligibility criteria, 1082 hospitalized burn admissions were included in the primary analysis cohort.
The study evaluates the prognostic performance of the Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI), Revised Baux score, and modified Ryan score for predicting in-hospital mortality. ABSI is calculated using age, sex, total body surface area burned, inhalation injury, and full-thickness burn status. Revised Baux score is calculated using age, total body surface area burned, and the presence of inhalation injury. The modified Ryan score is calculated using age category, total body surface area burned category, inhalation injury, and third-degree burn status.
The primary outcome is in-hospital mortality, defined as death occurring during the index hospitalization. Secondary evaluations include associations between mortality and selected clinical variables, including inhalation injury, sepsis, intensive care admission, mechanical ventilation, number of surgical procedures, and length of hospital stay.
The discriminative performance of prognostic scores will be assessed using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Area under the curve, confidence intervals, optimal cut-off values, sensitivity, and specificity will be reported. Associations between score increments and mortality will be examined using univariable logistic regression.
Study design
- Observational model
- Cohort
- Time perspective
- Retrospective
- Number of arms
- 1
| Arm | Type | Receives |
|---|---|---|
| Hospitalized Burn Admissions | – | Other: Retrospective Prognostic Score AssessmentHospitalized burn admissions treated at the Burn Center of Gaziantep City Hospital between October 2023 and February 2026 and included in the retrospective primary analysis cohort. Prognostic scores, including ABSI, Revised Baux score, and modified Ryan score, were calculated from routinely recorded electronic medical data. No intervention was assigned by the study protocol. |
Who may qualify
- Sex
- All
- Healthy volunteers
- Not accepted
- Age groups
- Child, Adult, Older adult
- Study population
- The study population consists of hospitalized burn admissions treated at the Burn Center of Gaziantep City Hospital, a tertiary referral burn center, between October 2023 and February 2026. The cohort includes burn admissions with documented in-hospital outcomes and sufficient electronic medical record data for calculation of ABSI, Revised Baux score, and modified Ryan score.
Eligibility is decided by the study team after screening; this overview does not establish that a patient qualifies. Full inclusion and exclusion criteria.
Interventions
| Intervention | Type | Arms |
|---|---|---|
| Retrospective Prognostic Score AssessmentAlso: ABSI, Revised Baux score, Modified Ryan scoreABSI, Revised Baux score, and modified Ryan score were retrospectively calculated using routinely collected electronic medical record data from hospitalized burn admissions. These scores were evaluated for their ability to predict in-hospital mortality. No drug, device, procedure, or treatment intervention was assigned by the study protocol. | Other | Hospitalized Burn Admissions |
Primary outcome
In-Hospital Mortality
Time frame: From hospital admission to hospital discharge or in-hospital death, assessed up to 240 days.
In-hospital mortality was defined as death occurring during the index hospitalization for burn injury. Mortality status was determined from electronic hospital records and was used as the primary outcome for evaluating the prognostic performance of burn severity scoring systems.
4 secondary outcomes
Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve for the Abbreviated Burn Severity Index
Time frame: Score variables were obtained from admission and early hospitalization records; in-hospital mortality was assessed from hospital admission to discharge or in-hospital death, up to 240 days.
Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve for the Revised Baux Score
Time frame: Score variables were obtained from admission and early hospitalization records; in-hospital mortality was assessed from hospital admission to discharge or in-hospital death, up to 240 days.
Predictive Performance of the Modified Ryan Score
Time frame: Score variables were obtained from admission and early hospitalization records; in-hospital mortality was assessed from hospital admission to discharge or in-hospital death, up to 240 days.
Association of Selected Clinical Factors With In-Hospital Mortality
Time frame: Clinical factors and mortality status were assessed from hospital admission to hospital discharge or in-hospital death, up to 240 days.
Results and safety
The study is completed, but results are not available in the source record. That does not mean the treatment did or did not work.
Research links
- Official record on ClinicalTrials.govLast updated by the sponsor 8 Jul 2026.
- Background: PubMed 9449729Ryan CM, Schoenfeld DA, Thorpe WP, Sheridan RL, Cassem EH, Tompkins RG. Objective estimates of the probability of death from burn injuries. N Engl J Med. 1998 Feb 5;338(6):362-6. doi: 10.1056/NEJM199802053380604.
- Background: PubMed 20038856Osler T, Glance LG, Hosmer DW. Simplified estimates of the probability of death after burn injuries: extending and updating the baux score. J Trauma. 2010 Mar;68(3):690-7. doi: 10.1097/TA.0b013e3181c453b3.
- Background: PubMed 7073049Tobiasen J, Hiebert JM, Edlich RF. The abbreviated burn severity index. Ann Emerg Med. 1982 May;11(5):260-2. doi: 10.1016/s0196-0644(82)80096-6. No abstract available.
- Individual participant dataSharing planned: No
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Referral and contact
AzTrials does not enrol participants or take referrals. Contact the study team or a site listed below; they decide who can take part. This study is not recruiting at the moment.
Bekir Suat Kurkcuoglu principal investigator
Gaziantep City Hospital
1 site in 1 country: see every site and its status.
Questions about this trial
What is this clinical trial studying?
An observational study of Burn Injury and In-Hospital Mortality, run by Gaziantep City Hospital at 1 site in Turkey (Türkiye).
The full registered description is in the About this study section and the official record.
Is this clinical trial currently recruiting?
The record says: finished, as of the sponsor's last update on 8 Jul 2026. Status can change between updates, so confirm with the study contact before making plans.
Where is the study taking place?
The record lists 1 site in Turkey (Türkiye). Whether a site is taking part right now should be confirmed with that site. See every site.
What are the possible benefits and risks?
They depend on the study and the treatment, and no study can promise a benefit. The study team explains the known risks during informed consent, before anyone joins; the record itself does not list them.
Are results available for this study?
The study is completed, but results are not available in the source record. That does not mean the treatment did or did not work.
How can a doctor refer a patient or contact the research team?
The record lists no contact. The official record names the sponsor, who can be asked directly. AzTrials does not enrol participants or take referrals.
What does the primary outcome measure?
In-Hospital Mortality (time frame: From hospital admission to hospital discharge or in-hospital death, assessed up to 240 days.). It is what the study was designed to measure, not a finding.
Where can I read the original study information?
On the ClinicalTrials.gov record for NCT07689890, which also lists 3 linked publications.
Does a listing mean the treatment is approved or proven to work?
No. A listing means the study is registered. It does not show that the treatment is safe, works, or is approved by a regulator.
How often is this information updated?
AzTrials copies changed records from ClinicalTrials.gov every night and reloads the whole registry every week. The sponsor last updated this record on 8 Jul 2026.