Ulcerative Colitis (Disorder)NCT07721987
Development and External Validation of a Machine Learning Model for Pre-Endoscopic Prediction of Montreal Disease Extent (E1/E2/E3) in Ulcerative Colitis Using Symptoms, Signs, and Laboratory Tests: A Multicenter Retrospective Observational Study
An observational study of Ulcerative Colitis (Disorder), run by Beijing University of Chinese Medicine.
Trial summary
This multicenter retrospective observational study aims to develop and externally validate a machine learning model that predicts Montreal ulcerative colitis (UC) disease extent (E1: limited/proctitis; E2: left-sided; E3: extensive) using pre-endoscopic clinical information, including symptoms, signs, and laboratory… Read more about this study
- Who is it for?
- Ages 18 to 85 years
- Conditions the study is for
- Ulcerative Colitis (Disorder)
- How many people
- 1,500 participants
- Where
- No sites listed yet
- Study dates
- 20 Nov 2015to 1 Sep 2026
- Phase
- Observational
- Are there results?
- Not yet: the study is under way
Key requirements
Who can take part, as listed by the sponsor. Only the study team can confirm whether you are eligible, so take this list to your doctor.
- Ages 18 to 85 years
- All sexes
- No healthy volunteers
- Adult, Older adult
Study population: Adults with UC from four hospitals in China (2020-2025). Development cohort: Centers A (Dongfang Hospital, BUCM) and B (Dongzhimen Hospital, BUCM). External validation cohort: Centers C (BUCM Third Affiliated Hospital) and D (Yantai Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine).
Who may be able to join
- Confirmed diagnosis of ulcerative colitis by endoscopy ± histopathology.
- Montreal disease extent classifiable as E1 (limited), E2 (intermediate/left-sided), or E3 (extensive) and mapped to study labels 1/2/3.
- Pre-endoscopic baseline data available: demographics, symptoms, signs, and laboratory tests used as model predictors.
- Predictors collected before or independent of endoscopic findings used for the outcome label (endoscopic extent not used as input).
- One index visit per patient (duplicate/non-index visits excluded).
Who cannot join
- Non-UC diagnosis or Montreal extent not assignable.
- Missing patient identifier/linkage or unlabelable outcome.
- Incomplete endoscopic gold standard for Montreal extent classification.
- Duplicate or non-index visits.
- Critical predictor data unavailable and not handled by the prespecified modeling pipeline
About this study
Official title: Development and External Validation of a Machine Learning Model for Pre-Endoscopic Prediction of Montreal Disease Extent (E1/E2/E3) in Ulcerative Colitis
This multicenter retrospective observational study aims to develop and externally validate a machine learning model that predicts Montreal ulcerative colitis (UC) disease extent (E1: limited/proctitis; E2: left-sided; E3: extensive) using pre-endoscopic clinical information, including symptoms, signs, and laboratory tests. The model is intended to assist clinical assessment before endoscopic confirmation and is not designed to replace colonoscopy or histopathology. Data from development centers (Centers A and B) will be used for model development with nested cross-validation; data from independent external centers (Centers C and D) will be used for external validation only.
- Conditions
- Ulcerative Colitis (Disorder)
- Medical subject headings
- Colitis, Ulcerative
What is being measured
The primary outcome is the main question the study is designed to answer.
Macro one-vs-rest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (macro AUC-OVR) for three-class Montreal extent prediction (E1 vs E2 vs E3) in the external validation cohort (n=247).
Measured: At index visit / endoscopic assessment
Timeline
From the start of the study to its completion; the mark is today. Estimated dates are the sponsor’s plan.
- First posted23 Jul 2026
- Study start20 Nov 2015
- Primary completion1 Aug 2026
- Study completion1 Sep 2026 (estimated)
Resources
- Official record on ClinicalTrials.govThe registry entry this page is built from, with its full change history.
- Other trials for Ulcerative Colitis (Disorder)Studies of the same condition, open and under way.
- What the trial phases meanHow a treatment moves from first tests in people to approval.
More details
For doctors and researchers: how the study is designed, who runs it, and its registry IDs.
Study design
- Study type
- Observational
- Observational model
- Other
- Time perspective
- Retrospective
- Enrolment
- 1,500 participants (estimated)
Sponsor and investigators
- Lead sponsor
- Beijing University of Chinese Medicine
- Sponsor type
- University, hospital or other
- Collaborators
- Yantai Penglai Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Dongzhimen Hospital, Beijing, Dongfang Hospital Beijing University of Chinese Medicine
- Responsible party
- Principal investigator, Kai Liu, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine
IDs, dates and publications
- ClinicalTrials.gov ID
- NCT07721987
- Sponsor's protocol ID
- 2026BZYLL0603
- Status last verified
- Aug 2026
- First submitted
- 19 Jul 2026
- Last updated
- 18 Aug 2026
- Results posted
- No
- Data monitoring committee
- No
- FDA-regulated drug
- No
- FDA-regulated device
- No
- Individual data sharing
- No: Due to the restrictions of the informed consent form approved by the Institutional Review Board (IRB), patients were only consented for the use of their data in this specific clinical prediction model study. Broad data sharing was not covered in the original ethical approval, and obtaining re-consent from all 247 participants is not feasible.
Study at a glance
From the registry record, last updated by the sponsor on 18 Aug 2026. Recruitment status is as the sponsor reported it: confirm with the study team.
- Official title
- Development and External Validation of a Machine Learning Model for Pre-Endoscopic Prediction of Montreal Disease Extent (E1/E2/E3) in Ulcerative Colitis
- ClinicalTrials.gov ID
- NCT07721987
- Acronym / sponsor ID
- 2026BZYLL0603
- Conditions
- Ulcerative Colitis (Disorder)
- Study type
- Observational
- Recruitment status
- Active, not recruiting
- Enrolment
- 1,500 participants (estimated)
- Lead sponsor
- Beijing University of Chinese MedicineUniversity, hospital or other
- Collaborators
- Yantai Penglai Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Dongzhimen Hospital, Beijing, Dongfang Hospital Beijing University of Chinese Medicine
- Study start
- 20 Nov 2015 (actual)
- Primary completion
- 1 Aug 2026 (actual)
- Study completion
- 1 Sep 2026 (estimated)
- First posted
- 23 Jul 2026 (actual)
- Results
- Not posted in the source record
Clinical summary
The research question as the sponsor registered it. This describes what the study plans to test, not what it found.
This multicenter retrospective observational study aims to develop and externally validate a machine learning model that predicts Montreal ulcerative colitis (UC) disease extent (E1: limited/proctitis; E2: left-sided; E3: extensive) using pre-endoscopic clinical information, including symptoms, signs, and laboratory tests. The model is intended to assist clinical assessment before endoscopic confirmation and is not designed to replace colonoscopy or histopathology. Data from development centers (Centers A and B) will be used for model development with nested cross-validation; data from independent external centers (Centers C and D) will be used for external validation only.
Study design
- Observational model
- Other
- Time perspective
- Retrospective
Who may qualify
- Ages
- 18 to 85 years
- Sex
- All
- Healthy volunteers
- Not accepted
- Age groups
- Adult, Older adult
- Study population
- Adults with UC from four hospitals in China (2020-2025). Development cohort: Centers A (Dongfang Hospital, BUCM) and B (Dongzhimen Hospital, BUCM). External validation cohort: Centers C (BUCM Third Affiliated Hospital) and D (Yantai Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine).
Key inclusion criteria (5 listed)
- Confirmed diagnosis of ulcerative colitis by endoscopy ± histopathology.
- Montreal disease extent classifiable as E1 (limited), E2 (intermediate/left-sided), or E3 (extensive) and mapped to study labels 1/2/3.
- Pre-endoscopic baseline data available: demographics, symptoms, signs, and laboratory tests used as model predictors.
- Predictors collected before or independent of endoscopic findings used for the outcome label (endoscopic extent not used as input).
- One index visit per patient (duplicate/non-index visits excluded).
Key exclusion criteria (5 listed)
- Non-UC diagnosis or Montreal extent not assignable.
- Missing patient identifier/linkage or unlabelable outcome.
- Incomplete endoscopic gold standard for Montreal extent classification.
- Duplicate or non-index visits.
- Critical predictor data unavailable and not handled by the prespecified modeling pipeline
Eligibility is decided by the study team after screening; this overview does not establish that a patient qualifies. Full inclusion and exclusion criteria.
Primary outcome
Macro one-vs-rest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (macro AUC-OVR) for three-class Montreal extent prediction (E1 vs E2 vs E3) in the external validation cohort (n=247).
Time frame: At index visit / endoscopic assessment
Results and safety
This study is still under way. Results are not available in the source record yet.
Research links
- Official record on ClinicalTrials.govLast updated by the sponsor 18 Aug 2026.
- Individual participant dataSharing planned: No. Due to the restrictions of the informed consent form approved by the Institutional Review Board (IRB), patients were only consented for the use of their data in this specific clinical prediction model study. Broad data sharing was not covered in the original ethical approval, and obtaining re-consent from all 247 participants is not feasible.
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Referral and contact
AzTrials does not enrol participants or take referrals. Contact the study team or a site listed below; they decide who can take part. This study is not recruiting at the moment.
The record lists no contact. Use the official record to reach the sponsor.
Questions about this trial
What is this clinical trial studying?
An observational study of Ulcerative Colitis (Disorder), run by Beijing University of Chinese Medicine.
The full registered description is in the About this study section and the official record.
Who may be eligible to take part?
The sponsor lists 5 inclusion and 5 exclusion criteria. Eligibility is decided by the study team after screening, so read the full criteria and contact a listed site.
Is this clinical trial currently recruiting?
The record says: under way, not looking for participants, as of the sponsor's last update on 18 Aug 2026. Status can change between updates, so confirm with the study contact before making plans.
What are the possible benefits and risks?
They depend on the study and the treatment, and no study can promise a benefit. The study team explains the known risks during informed consent, before anyone joins; the record itself does not list them.
Are results available for this study?
This study is still under way. Results are not available in the source record yet.
How can a doctor refer a patient or contact the research team?
The record lists no contact. The official record names the sponsor, who can be asked directly. AzTrials does not enrol participants or take referrals.
What does the primary outcome measure?
Macro one-vs-rest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (macro AUC-OVR) for three-class Montreal extent prediction (E1 vs E2 vs E3) in the external validation cohort (n=247). (time frame: At index visit / endoscopic assessment). It is what the study was designed to measure, not a finding.
Where can I read the original study information?
Does a listing mean the treatment is approved or proven to work?
No. A listing means the study is registered. It does not show that the treatment is safe, works, or is approved by a regulator.
How often is this information updated?
AzTrials copies changed records from ClinicalTrials.gov every night and reloads the whole registry every week. The sponsor last updated this record on 18 Aug 2026.