Upper Resp Tract InfectionNCT07767019
Climate Change Trends and Their Impact on the Seasonal Upper Respiratory Tract Disease Burden
An observational study of Upper Resp Tract Infection, run by Barzilai Medical Center at 1 site in Israel.
Trial summary
Investigators assume that global climate changes can influence upper respiratory tract infection peak prevalence, which may have significant clinical implication, for example, by adjusting seasonal Influenzas' vaccine timing. Read more about this study
- Who is it for?
- Any age
- Conditions the study is for
- Upper Resp Tract Infection
- How many people
- 5,000 participants
- Where
- 1 siteIsrael
- Study dates
- 15 Aug 2026to 31 Jan 2027
- Phase
- Observational
- Are there results?
- Not yet: the study is under way
Key requirements
Who can take part, as listed by the sponsor. Only the study team can confirm whether you are eligible, so take this list to your doctor.
- Ages Any age
- All sexes
- No healthy volunteers
- Child, Adult, Older adult
Study population: All patients with a positive nasopharyngeal swab for a respiratory virus - Influenza, RSV, Para-Influenza, Human MetaPneumoVirus, Rhinovirus.
Who may be able to join
- All patient with a positive nasopharyngeal swab for a respiratory virus
Who cannot join
- No medical record available
Trial locations and contacts
1 site in 1 country. Contact the study team or a site near you to ask about taking part.
Daniel leshin Carmel Head of Infection Control and Prevention, MD contact
Pnina Nir Study Coordinator contact
Israel1 site
Barzilai Medical Center
Ashkelon
Daniel Leshin Carmel, MD, +972525253037, danielles@bmc.gov.il
Pnina Nir, pninan@bmc.gov.il
About this study
Investigators assume that global climate changes can influence upper respiratory tract infection peak prevalence, which may have significant clinical implication, for example, by adjusting seasonal Influenzas' vaccine timing. Therefore, the investigators will collect data from electronic medical database about patients tested positive for winter seasonal respiratory tract viruses from 2022 and compare the incidence to the meteorological profile of that season.
Read the detailed description
The seasonal cycle of respiratory viral diseases has been widely recognized for thousands of years, as annual epidemics of the common cold and influenza hit the human population like clockwork in temperate regions during winter. Many explanations for this phenomenon appear in the literature. Huang et al. reported in 2017 a decrease in Influenza incidence while average temperatures increased in Queensland, Australia. Weather variability appears to be more influential on seasonal influenza transmission among younger age groups (0-14). Not only is the temperature relevant, but all meteorological parameters also vary. For example, Qi et al. found that both low and high absolute humidity might increase influenza risk in China, and the relationship varies geographically.
The meteorological service in Israel reports a marked increase in temperature when comparing 2006-2020 to 1964-1979 and 1995-2009 across all seasons. The average warming rate from 1964-1979 to 2006-2020 is approximately 1.5°C, highlighting a notable temperature difference.
The investigators assume that global climate changes can influence Influenza peak prevalence, which may have significant clinical implication by adjusting seasonal Influenzas' vaccine timing.
The study will include identification of all patients who tested positive for URT infection with seasonal virus (Influenza, RSV, Rhinovirus, Human MetaPneumoVirus, ParaInflunza) via respiratory PCR since 2022, whether in the emergency department or during hospitalization. This will be followed by a review of medical records to extract baseline data: age, sex, weight, underlying medical conditions, and the need for hospitalization, intensive care admission, mechanical ventilation, vasopressors, or renal replacement therapy.
- Conditions
- Upper Resp Tract Infection
- Being tested
- No Intervention: Observational Cohort
- Keywords
- URTI, Influenza, RSV, Climate change
- Medical subject headings
- Respiratory Tract Infections, Influenza, Human
What participants receive
What participants receive. In a randomised study each person is assigned to one group by chance.
No Intervention: Observational CohortOther
No intervention, observational retrospective study.
| Study group | Role | What they receive |
|---|---|---|
| URTI infection | Patients with a positive RV7 sample Receives: Other: No Intervention: Observational Cohort |
What is being measured
The primary outcome is the main question the study is designed to answer.
Incidence
Examining the incidence of severe upper respiratory tract illness (requiring hospital visits) in relation to weather changes over the last four seasons.
Measured: 4 winter seasons, from 2022 to 2026.
Secondary outcomes (3)
Morbidity
Analysis of winter morbidity trends among patients presenting to the hospital with Influenza. Including severity of illness (need for ICU admission, mechanical ventilation and/or inotropes assistance).
Measured: 4 winter seasons, 2022 to 2026.
Mortality
Analysis of winter mortality trends among patients presenting to the hospital with Influenza. Including mortality during hospitalization or within 30 days.
Measured: 4 winter seasons 2022-2026
recurrence
Analysis of upper respiratory tract infection recurrence trends among patients presenting to the hospital with Influenza. Including recurrent admission within 30 days.
Measured: 4 winter seasons, 2022-2026
Timeline
From the start of the study to its completion; the mark is today. Estimated dates are the sponsor’s plan.
- First posted17 Aug 2026
- Study start15 Aug 2026 (estimated)
- Primary completion1 Jan 2027 (estimated)
- Study completion31 Jan 2027 (estimated)
Resources
- Official record on ClinicalTrials.govThe registry entry this page is built from, with its full change history.
- Publications (10)Papers the sponsor has linked to this study.
- Other trials for Upper Resp Tract InfectionStudies of the same condition, open and under way.
- What the trial phases meanHow a treatment moves from first tests in people to approval.
More details
For doctors and researchers: how the study is designed, who runs it, and its registry IDs.
Study design
- Study type
- Observational
- Observational model
- Case only
- Time perspective
- Retrospective
- Enrolment
- 5,000 participants (estimated)
Sponsor and investigators
- Lead sponsor
- Barzilai Medical Center
- Sponsor type
- University, hospital or other
- Responsible party
- Principal investigator, Dr. Daniel Leshin Carmel, Barzilai Medical Center
- Investigators
- Daniel Leshin Carmel, MD, Principal investigator, Barzilai Medical Center
IDs, dates and publications
- ClinicalTrials.gov ID
- NCT07767019
- Sponsor's protocol ID
- 0076-26-BRZ
- Status last verified
- Aug 2026
- First submitted
- 10 Aug 2026
- Last updated
- 17 Aug 2026
- Results posted
- No
- Data monitoring committee
- No
- FDA-regulated drug
- No
- FDA-regulated device
- No
- Individual data sharing
- No: There is not a plan to make IPD available.
Publications
Roussel M, Pontier D, Cohen JM, Lina B, Fouchet D. Quantifying the role of weather on seasonal influenza. BMC Public Health. 2016 May 26;16:441. doi: 10.1186/s12889-016-3114-x.
PubMed 27230111Sloan C, Moore ML, Hartert T. Impact of pollution, climate, and sociodemographic factors on spatiotemporal dynamics of seasonal respiratory viruses. Clin Transl Sci. 2011 Feb;4(1):48-54. doi: 10.1111/j.1752-8062.2010.00257.x.
PubMed 21348956Zhang S, Chen C, Wang R, Liu L, Wang X, Zhang X. Influence and lagged effects of weather and air pollution on pediatric RSV-ALRI in Shenyang, NE China. Respir Med. 2026 Apr;254:108711. doi: 10.1016/j.rmed.2026.108711. Epub 2026 Feb 13.
PubMed 41690416Yan ZL, Liu WH, Long YX, Ming BW, Yang Z, Qin PZ, Ou CQ, Li L. Effects of meteorological factors on influenza transmissibility by virus type/subtype. BMC Public Health. 2024 Feb 16;24(1):494. doi: 10.1186/s12889-024-17961-9.
PubMed 38365650Qi L, Liu T, Gao Y, Li Q, Tang W, Tian D, Su K, Xiong Y, Yang J, Feng L, Liu Q. Effect of absolute humidity on influenza activity across different climate regions in China. Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Jul;29(32):49373-49384. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-19279-8. Epub 2022 Feb 26.
PubMed 35218485Singh DE, Marinescu MC, Carretero J, Delgado-Sanz C, Gomez-Barroso D, Larrauri A. Evaluating the impact of the weather conditions on the influenza propagation. BMC Infect Dis. 2020 Apr 5;20(1):265. doi: 10.1186/s12879-020-04977-w.
PubMed 32248792Moriyama M, Hugentobler WJ, Iwasaki A. Seasonality of Respiratory Viral Infections. Annu Rev Virol. 2020 Sep 29;7(1):83-101. doi: 10.1146/annurev-virology-012420-022445. Epub 2020 Mar 20.
PubMed 32196426Huang X, Mengersen K, Milinovich G, Hu W. Effect of Weather Variability on Seasonal Influenza Among Different Age Groups in Queensland, Australia: A Bayesian Spatiotemporal Analysis. J Infect Dis. 2017 Jun 1;215(11):1695-1701. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jix181.
PubMed 28407143Saino N, Ambrosini R, Rubolini D, von Hardenberg J, Provenzale A, Huppop K, Huppop O, Lehikoinen A, Lehikoinen E, Rainio K, Romano M, Sokolov L. Climate warming, ecological mismatch at arrival and population decline in migratory birds. Proc Biol Sci. 2011 Mar 22;278(1707):835-42. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2010.1778. Epub 2010 Sep 22.
PubMed 20861045Kilpatrick AM, Chmura AA, Gibbons DW, Fleischer RC, Marra PP, Daszak P. Predicting the global spread of H5N1 avian influenza. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2006 Dec 19;103(51):19368-73. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0609227103. Epub 2006 Dec 7.
PubMed 17158217
Study at a glance
From the registry record, last updated by the sponsor on 17 Aug 2026. Recruitment status is as the sponsor reported it: confirm with the study team.
- Official title
- Climate Change Trends and Their Impact on the Seasonal Upper Respiratory Tract Disease Burden
- ClinicalTrials.gov ID
- NCT07767019
- Acronym / sponsor ID
- 0076-26-BRZ
- Conditions
- Upper Resp Tract Infection
- Keywords
- URTI, Influenza, RSV, Climate change
- Study type
- Observational
- Recruitment status
- Not yet recruiting
- Enrolment
- 5,000 participants (estimated)
- Lead sponsor
- Barzilai Medical CenterUniversity, hospital or other
- Study start
- 15 Aug 2026 (estimated)
- Primary completion
- 1 Jan 2027 (estimated)
- Study completion
- 31 Jan 2027 (estimated)
- First posted
- 17 Aug 2026 (actual)
- Results
- Not posted in the source record
Clinical summary
The research question as the sponsor registered it. This describes what the study plans to test, not what it found.
Investigators assume that global climate changes can influence upper respiratory tract infection peak prevalence, which may have significant clinical implication, for example, by adjusting seasonal Influenzas' vaccine timing. Therefore, the investigators will collect data from electronic medical database about patients tested positive for winter seasonal respiratory tract viruses from 2022 and compare the incidence to the meteorological profile of that season.
Detailed description
The seasonal cycle of respiratory viral diseases has been widely recognized for thousands of years, as annual epidemics of the common cold and influenza hit the human population like clockwork in temperate regions during winter. Many explanations for this phenomenon appear in the literature. Huang et al. reported in 2017 a decrease in Influenza incidence while average temperatures increased in Queensland, Australia. Weather variability appears to be more influential on seasonal influenza transmission among younger age groups (0-14). Not only is the temperature relevant, but all meteorological parameters also vary. For example, Qi et al. found that both low and high absolute humidity might increase influenza risk in China, and the relationship varies geographically.
The meteorological service in Israel reports a marked increase in temperature when comparing 2006-2020 to 1964-1979 and 1995-2009 across all seasons. The average warming rate from 1964-1979 to 2006-2020 is approximately 1.5°C, highlighting a notable temperature difference.
The investigators assume that global climate changes can influence Influenza peak prevalence, which may have significant clinical implication by adjusting seasonal Influenzas' vaccine timing.
The study will include identification of all patients who tested positive for URT infection with seasonal virus (Influenza, RSV, Rhinovirus, Human MetaPneumoVirus, ParaInflunza) via respiratory PCR since 2022, whether in the emergency department or during hospitalization. This will be followed by a review of medical records to extract baseline data: age, sex, weight, underlying medical conditions, and the need for hospitalization, intensive care admission, mechanical ventilation, vasopressors, or renal replacement therapy.
Study design
- Observational model
- Case only
- Time perspective
- Retrospective
- Number of arms
- 1
| Arm | Type | Receives |
|---|---|---|
| URTI infection | – | Other: No Intervention: Observational CohortPatients with a positive RV7 sample |
Who may qualify
- Sex
- All
- Healthy volunteers
- Not accepted
- Age groups
- Child, Adult, Older adult
- Study population
- All patients with a positive nasopharyngeal swab for a respiratory virus - Influenza, RSV, Para-Influenza, Human MetaPneumoVirus, Rhinovirus.
Key inclusion criteria (1 listed)
- All patient with a positive nasopharyngeal swab for a respiratory virus
Key exclusion criteria (1 listed)
- No medical record available
Eligibility is decided by the study team after screening; this overview does not establish that a patient qualifies. Full inclusion and exclusion criteria.
Interventions
| Intervention | Type | Arms |
|---|---|---|
| No Intervention: Observational CohortNo intervention, observational retrospective study. | Other | URTI infection |
Primary outcome
Incidence
Time frame: 4 winter seasons, from 2022 to 2026.
Examining the incidence of severe upper respiratory tract illness (requiring hospital visits) in relation to weather changes over the last four seasons.
3 secondary outcomes
Morbidity
Time frame: 4 winter seasons, 2022 to 2026.
Mortality
Time frame: 4 winter seasons 2022-2026
recurrence
Time frame: 4 winter seasons, 2022-2026
Results and safety
This study is still under way. Results are not available in the source record yet.
Research links
- Official record on ClinicalTrials.govLast updated by the sponsor 17 Aug 2026.
- Background: PubMed 27230111Roussel M, Pontier D, Cohen JM, Lina B, Fouchet D. Quantifying the role of weather on seasonal influenza. BMC Public Health. 2016 May 26;16:441. doi: 10.1186/s12889-016-3114-x.
- Background: PubMed 21348956Sloan C, Moore ML, Hartert T. Impact of pollution, climate, and sociodemographic factors on spatiotemporal dynamics of seasonal respiratory viruses. Clin Transl Sci. 2011 Feb;4(1):48-54. doi: 10.1111/j.1752-8062.2010.00257.x.
- Background: PubMed 41690416Zhang S, Chen C, Wang R, Liu L, Wang X, Zhang X. Influence and lagged effects of weather and air pollution on pediatric RSV-ALRI in Shenyang, NE China. Respir Med. 2026 Apr;254:108711. doi: 10.1016/j.rmed.2026.108711. Epub 2026 Feb 13.
- Background: PubMed 38365650Yan ZL, Liu WH, Long YX, Ming BW, Yang Z, Qin PZ, Ou CQ, Li L. Effects of meteorological factors on influenza transmissibility by virus type/subtype. BMC Public Health. 2024 Feb 16;24(1):494. doi: 10.1186/s12889-024-17961-9.
- Background: PubMed 35218485Qi L, Liu T, Gao Y, Li Q, Tang W, Tian D, Su K, Xiong Y, Yang J, Feng L, Liu Q. Effect of absolute humidity on influenza activity across different climate regions in China. Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Jul;29(32):49373-49384. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-19279-8. Epub 2022 Feb 26.
- Background: PubMed 32248792Singh DE, Marinescu MC, Carretero J, Delgado-Sanz C, Gomez-Barroso D, Larrauri A. Evaluating the impact of the weather conditions on the influenza propagation. BMC Infect Dis. 2020 Apr 5;20(1):265. doi: 10.1186/s12879-020-04977-w.
- Background: PubMed 32196426Moriyama M, Hugentobler WJ, Iwasaki A. Seasonality of Respiratory Viral Infections. Annu Rev Virol. 2020 Sep 29;7(1):83-101. doi: 10.1146/annurev-virology-012420-022445. Epub 2020 Mar 20.
- Background: PubMed 28407143Huang X, Mengersen K, Milinovich G, Hu W. Effect of Weather Variability on Seasonal Influenza Among Different Age Groups in Queensland, Australia: A Bayesian Spatiotemporal Analysis. J Infect Dis. 2017 Jun 1;215(11):1695-1701. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jix181.
- Background: PubMed 20861045Saino N, Ambrosini R, Rubolini D, von Hardenberg J, Provenzale A, Huppop K, Huppop O, Lehikoinen A, Lehikoinen E, Rainio K, Romano M, Sokolov L. Climate warming, ecological mismatch at arrival and population decline in migratory birds. Proc Biol Sci. 2011 Mar 22;278(1707):835-42. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2010.1778. Epub 2010 Sep 22.
- Background: PubMed 17158217Kilpatrick AM, Chmura AA, Gibbons DW, Fleischer RC, Marra PP, Daszak P. Predicting the global spread of H5N1 avian influenza. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2006 Dec 19;103(51):19368-73. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0609227103. Epub 2006 Dec 7.
- Individual participant dataSharing planned: No. There is not a plan to make IPD available.
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Referral and contact
AzTrials does not enrol participants or take referrals. Contact the study team or a site listed below; they decide who can take part.
Daniel leshin Carmel Head of Infection Control and Prevention, MD contact
Pnina Nir Study Coordinator contact
Daniel Leshin Carmel, MD principal investigator
Barzilai Medical Center
1 site in 1 country: see every site and its status.
Questions about this trial
What is this clinical trial studying?
An observational study of Upper Resp Tract Infection, run by Barzilai Medical Center at 1 site in Israel.
The full registered description is in the About this study section and the official record.
Who may be eligible to take part?
The sponsor lists 1 inclusion and 1 exclusion criteria. Eligibility is decided by the study team after screening, so read the full criteria and contact a listed site.
Is this clinical trial currently recruiting?
The record says: opening soon, as of the sponsor's last update on 17 Aug 2026. Status can change between updates, so confirm with the study contact before making plans.
Where is the study taking place?
The record lists 1 site in Israel. Whether a site is taking part right now should be confirmed with that site. See every site.
What are the possible benefits and risks?
They depend on the study and the treatment, and no study can promise a benefit. The study team explains the known risks during informed consent, before anyone joins; the record itself does not list them.
Are results available for this study?
This study is still under way. Results are not available in the source record yet.
How can a doctor refer a patient or contact the research team?
Contact Daniel leshin Carmel Head of Infection Control and Prevention, MD (+972525253037, danielles@bmc.gov.il), or a site near the patient. AzTrials does not enrol participants or take referrals.
What does the primary outcome measure?
Incidence (time frame: 4 winter seasons, from 2022 to 2026.). It is what the study was designed to measure, not a finding.
Where can I read the original study information?
On the ClinicalTrials.gov record for NCT07767019, which also lists 10 linked publications.
Does a listing mean the treatment is approved or proven to work?
No. A listing means the study is registered. It does not show that the treatment is safe, works, or is approved by a regulator.
How often is this information updated?
AzTrials copies changed records from ClinicalTrials.gov every night and reloads the whole registry every week. The sponsor last updated this record on 17 Aug 2026.